MIKE DELEONARDIS WEATHER

Tropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1815 UTC Tue Oct 13 2026Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC

.TROPICAL WAVES

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 33W, from 10Nto 20N, moving westward near 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is along the northern portion of the wave near 19N33W as a recentscatterometer satellite data pass indicated. A tight gradient to its north is producing fresh to strong east winds from 17N to 24N between 28W and 35W. Seas with these winds are 8 to 10 ft(2.5 to 3 m). Satellite imagery shows moderate to isolated strongconvection from 19N to 25N between 30W and 35W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm east of the wave from 13N to 18N.A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W from 10N to 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate toisolated strong convection is within 180 nm east of the wave from11N to 18N between 42W and 46W

.MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 13N16W to 19N33W to 11N47W. The ITCZ extends from 11N47W to 10N59W.Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 25W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough between 38W-42W.

GULF OF AMERICA

A 1018 mb high is located near 29N88W. Its associated gradient is providing gentle to moderate northeast to east winds across the eastern half of the Gulf S of 27N, and east to southeast winds of the same speed W of 90W. Seas basin-wide are in the range of 2 to 4 ft, with slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft from 22N to 26N between 87W and 91W.For the forecast, high pressure building across the basin will support east to southeast winds and moderate seas from the Straits of Florida to the Texas coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. A cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri night, and reach from southwest Florida to the far southwest Gulf by Sat night. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front, with gale-force winds possible off the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Coatzacoalcos Fri night through Sat night

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CARIBBEAN SEA

The tail-end of a narrow upper-level trough stretches southwestwardfrom the Bahamas to the northwestern Caribbean. Scattered showersand isolated thunderstorms are seen north of 19n west of 80W, andsouth of 19N west of 85W, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. A mid to upper-level low over the eastern Caribbean continues to support scattered showers and thunderstorms east of about 76W. This feature reflects at the surface as a trough that is moving westward across the central Caribbean. Otherwise, the passage of a weakening cold front north of the area along with low pressure east of the Bahamas are supporting a weak pressure gradient across the region, thus resulting in moderate or weaker trade winds and slight to moderate seas, except for fresh winds offshore Venezuela in the south- central Caribbean. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be activeacross the central Caribbean through today, associated with an upper-level low. Fresh eas to southeast winds will persist north of 13N south and southwest of Jamaica through midweek, north of broad low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean. Trade winds will increase along with building seas over the south-central Caribbean as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic.



ATLANTIC OCEAN

A frontal trough extends from near 31N67W to the central Bahamas.Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm northwest ofthe trough. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the Straits of Florida, and from 24N to 27N between 64W and 69W. Farther east, a weak trough is analyzed from near 29N53W to24N57W. No significant convection is occurring with these feature.The central and eastern subtropical Atlantic are under the influence of the Azores ridge. A weakening stationary frontextends from 31N34W to near 30N43W. A weak pressure is generally allowing for light to gentle winds north of 18N west of 50W. Seas with these winds are 3 to 5 ft in north to northeast swell eastof 65W, and in northeast to east swell west of 65W. Higher east winds of fresh to strong speeds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are near the east Atlantic tropical wave as described above under the Tropical Waves section. Fresh to strong winds are also ongoing between the west coast of Africa and the Canary Islands as noted in an overnight scatterometer satellite data pass.For the forecast west of 55W, the front will dissipate through Wed. A second reinforcing front will move southward into the waters east of 75W into Wed, then stall and dissipate along 29N through Thu. A stronger cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front.
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.