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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
100 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1815 UTC Sun Nov 30 2025Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC
.SPECIAL FEATURES Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Recent scatterometer andaltimeter passes confirmed a large area of fresh to strongeasterly winds and 8 to 11 ft seas in a long plume across theeastern and central Atlantic from roughly 20N to 28N between 15W and 50W. These winds and seas are between strong high pressure north of the area and a trough near 51W extending from 15N and 25N. Scatterometer data also indicated locally near-gale forcewinds near the trough. The trough will continue to move to the W-NW at 20 to 25 kt and pass north of the Leeward Islands by mid week. Winds will diminish slightly through the period, but given the long fetch and duration of the winds, this pattern will support seas building to 12 to 13 ft today and Mon over an area from 22N to 28N between 45W and 55W. Winds and seas will diminish after late Tue, but 8-10 ft seas will persist across tropical Atlantic waters east of 60W through the latter part of the week. MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 08N13W and continues to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from 06N17W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 04N to 07N between10W and 30W.GULF OF AMERICA A new cold front has entered the NW Gulf. As of 1500 UTC, thefront extends from Vermilion Bay, LA to Padre Island, TX. Fresh tostrong NE winds are behind the front, with building seas of 5-7ft. Scattered showers and tstorms are along the front. A surfacetrough is analyzed in the east central Gulf, from 23N to 27N along88W. Locally fresh E winds, and seas to 6 ft, are analyzed nearthe trough. Scattered showers and tstorms are also near the trough. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker E winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail across the Gulf.For the forecast, the front is forecast to stall Mon night into Tue, when a low pressure will form off Texas and move northeastward across the southeast U.S. into the northwest Atlantic. Thereafter, the front will move southeastward farther into the basin, but then stall again over the central Gulf throughmid-week, as another low forms over South Texas. Looking ahead, expect fresh southerly flow over the western Gulf as the low pressure moves northeastward. CARIBBEAN SEA Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 15N between 72W and 76W, ahead of a broad upper trough reaching from the Windward Passage to southern Nicaragua. The latest satellite scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong NE winds within the Windward Passage. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, moderate or weaker tradesand 3-6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will support moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds across most ofthe basin through the early part of the week. Winds and seas willdiminish by mid week as the high shifts east. Looking ahead, expect fresh NE winds again over the north-central Caribbean and off Colombia by late Thu as high pressure builds over the eastern U.S. ATLANTIC OCEAN Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a Significant Swell Event in the Central Atlantic.A stationary front from 31N60W to 26N74W, just east of thenorthern Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N to 31Nbetween 65W and 75W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are north of 25Nbetween 60W and 80W. The latest satellite scatterometerdata indicates fresh to strong NE winds on approach to and withinthe Windward Passage. Elsewhere, outside of the area described inSPECIAL FEATURES, moderate or weaker trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail across the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will dissipate later today, and high pressure north of the front will shift eastward, allowing winds and seas to diminish. Another weak front will stall off the northeast Florida coast by Mon, then liftnorthward Mon night. Expect southerly winds and building seas north of 29N and west of 75W late Mon and Tue as low pressure moves from the northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking ahead, these strong southerly winds will shift eastward Tue night into Wed, north of 28N ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Tue night. This front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Wed, and from 31N60W to eastern Cuba by lateThu. Meanwhile, as described in SPECIAL FEATURES, strong winds and rough seas will accompany a trough moving westward into the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands Sun through Tue night. |
