MIKE DELEONARDIS WEATHER

Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />0015 UTC Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />2230 UTC.<br /><br />

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

<br /><br />The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of <br />Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 04.5N22W. The <br />ITCZ extends from 04.5N22W to the coast of Brazil at 00N50W.<br />Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01.5N to 07.5N <br />between 10W and 24W.<br /><br />GULF OF AMERICA

<br /><br />Moderate to fresh SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted across <br />most of the Gulf this afternoon, between high pressure over the <br />western Atlantic and low pressure over central Mexico. The <br />exception is gentle to moderate SE breezes and 3 to 4 ft seas <br />across the northeast Gulf. A surface trough is across the central<br />Gulf along 87W-88W, with small clusters of showers on either side<br />between 86W and 90W. <br /><br />For the forecast, high pressure centered across the western<br />Atlantic extends a ridge westward along about 30N to SE Texas, <br />and will be the main feature controlling the weather pattern <br />across the Gulf through late Fri. The associated pressure gradient<br />will maintain moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the <br />basin through Sat morning. East winds will pulse to strong speeds <br />north of the Yucatan peninsula and over the Bay of Campeche <br />nightly through Fri in association with a diurnal trough. Moderate<br />to fresh E winds and moderate seas are expected across the <br />Straits of Florida through Fri night. Elsewhere, winds will <br />diminish Fri into Sat for most of the zones. Looking ahead, a weak<br />cold front will reach the NE Gulf Sat night before shifting east <br />of the basin Sun. High pressure will then build southward across <br />the Gulf leading to mostly fresh easterly winds over most of the <br />forecast zones through early next week. <br /><br />

CARIBBEAN SEA

<br /><br />Weak high pressure centered over the western Atlantic between <br />Bermuda and northeast Florida is supporting fresh NE to E winds <br />across the north-central Caribbean, offshore of Colombia, through<br />the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba. Seas are 4 to 6 ft <br />across these areas. Moderate E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted <br />elsewhere. A few showers and thunderstorms are active near the <br />monsoon trough off the coast of Colombia and eastern Panama south<br />of 12N. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of an upper <br />trough that extends from the western Atlantic to the western<br />Caribbean is supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms<br />across the north central and northeast Caribbean, N of 14N, and<br />across portions of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.<br /><br />For the forecast, the current pattern will continue to support <br />fresh to strong northeast winds tonight through the Windward <br />Passage and in the lee of Cuba. At the same time, fresh to strong <br />northeast winds are expected south of the Dominican Republic, <br />mainly near Cabo Beata. Fresh to strong northeast winds will <br />materialize through the Windward Passage Fri night. Unsettled <br />weather is expected to continue over most of the eastern Caribbean<br />into the weekend, as the upper level trough remains just north of<br />the area. Otherwise, rather quiet conditions are expected over <br />the remainder of the basin into early next week.<br /><br />

ATLANTIC OCEAN

<br /><br />Deep layered low pressure across the central Atlantic has formed a<br />1013 mb surface low near 26N56.5W this afternoon. A middle to<br />upper level trough extends W-SW from the deep layered low pressure<br />through the Bahamas and into the western Caribbean. This feature<br />is creating unstable atmospheric conditions to the south and east<br />of it, and supporting active weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms<br />are occurring S of 21N between Hispaniola and 45W. Scattered to<br />numerous showers and thunderstorms are active from 20N northward <br />to 30N between 42W and the low pressure at 56.5W. North of the <br />low, stationary front continues from 26N61W to beyond 31N50W. A <br />surface trough lingering across this area for days extends from <br />the surface low to the northern Leeward Islands. Northwest of the <br />area, a 1024 mb high is centered near 32N71W. The pressure <br />gradient between the high and these features is producing moderate<br />to fresh NE to E winds to the west of the low and surface trough,<br />with strong NE winds north of the front between 55W and 60W. Seas<br />across this are 5 to 7 ft to the east of the Bahamas, with gentle<br />winds N of 30N and also N of the Bahamas, where seas are 3 to 4 <br />ft.<br /><br />Farther east, 1024 mb high pressure is east of the front near <br />32N35W, and a 1000 mb gale center is north of Madeira near <br />36N13W. This pattern is supporting a large area of fresh to <br />strong N winds and 8 to 14 ft seas over the eastern Atlantic <br />north of 20N and east of 30W, reaching minimal gale force on the <br />south and western side of the low. Moderate to fresh trade winds<br />prevail between 30W and the central Atlantic surface low and<br />trough. Seas across this region are 5 to 8 ft in NE swell. <br /><br />For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front and a surface <br />trough, with a weak low along it, will persist over the central <br />Atlantic between 50W and 60W over the next 48 hours. Fresh to <br />strong SE to S winds and building seas are expected over the E <br />side of the trough on Fri, then NW of it on Sat due to the <br />pressure gradient between the trough/low and high pressure to the <br />N. The low should dissipate by Sun, and the trough is forecast to <br />drift westward over the forecast waters early next week. An area <br />of fresh to strong easterly winds will persist near the northern <br />end of the trough axis, affecting mainly the NE waters. A weak <br />cold front will emerge off the northeast Florida coast late Sat <br />night into Sun. <br /><br />