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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Eastern Tropical Atlantic:A tropical wave is about emerge off of the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions are conducive for slow development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1215 UTC Sun Aug 31 2025Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0955 UTC
.SPECIAL FEATURES Gale Warning E of 35W: A tight pressure gradient between a 1030 mbhigh pressure system west of the Azores and lower pressures overNW Africa will support strong to gale-force N-NE winds and roughto very rough seas in the Agadir region from 01/0600 UTC to at least 01/1200 UTC. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas willpersist off Morocco into early Wed. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int TROPICAL WAVES An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is occurring near this wave.An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W, south of 18N, moving westward around 20 kt. A few showers are noted near thewave axis .MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast ofMauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 102N30W and10N44W. The ITCZ extends from 10N44W to 13N59W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 15N and east of 25W. Similar convection is found from 05N to 15N and between 42Wand 56W .GULF OF AMERICA A weak stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend area tothe SE Louisiana coast. This front is producing isolated moderateconvection N of 28N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstormsare also noted in the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise at the surface, weak ridging prevails, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will sag south today into early Mon, then meander over the north-central and northeast Gulf through early next week, bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area. The stronger thunderstorms will induce locally hazardous winds and seas. Elsewhere, the weak gradient in place will maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas through the period . CARIBBEAN SEA The subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic and lowerpressures over northern South American continue to support freshto locally strong easterly winds in the south-central Caribbean.Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresheasterly breezes and slight to moderate seas are present in thenorth-central, eastern Caribbean and also in the Bay of Honduras.In the rest of the basin, light to gentle winds and slight seasprevail. An upper level trough over the SE United States sustainsscattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean.For the forecast, the unsettled weather conditions in the NW Caribbean will continue into Mon. A tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean will produce some showers over the next few days, reaching the central Caribbean today and the western Caribbean Mon. Otherwise, Atlantic high pressure in combination with low pressure over northern Colombia will support fresh to strong trades along with moderate to locally rough seas across much of the central Caribbean through this week. Later, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean through the workweek. ATLANTIC OCEAN A weak stationary front extends from a 1012 mb low off NE Floridato near Palm Coast, Florida, with a surface trough extending southward offshore Florida through the NW Bahamas. Both features are leading to scattered thunderstorms N of Cuba and W of 73W. Farther east, a couple of surface troughs are also producing scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 25N and between 55W and 70W. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are noted west of73W and north of 26N. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic is under the influence of a subtropical ridge that maintains generallymoderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1030 mb highpressure system west of the Azores. This ridge forces moderate tolocally strong NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas north of 18Nand east of 50W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderateseas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, the low pres will track NE to E,dragging the front southward across much of Florida. Behind the low, NE to E winds will increase to fresh to strong N of the frontand seas will build to locally rough, mainly N of 29N and W of 75W Sun night into early Tue. Elsewhere, high pressure will remainin control of the general weather pattern providing for a gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow. |
