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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1215 UTC Wed Apr 15 2026Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC
.MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from coastal Liberia near 06N10W, then continues SW to 03N13W. The ITCZ extends from 03N13Wto 01S30W to NE Brazil near 02S46W. Scattered moderate to isolatedstrong convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 10W and 18W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere S of 04N between 10W and 41W .GULF OF AMERICA A ridge extends from high pressure over the west-central Atlanticacross Florida into the northern Gulf. Under the influence of this system, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to locallyrough seas are noted over the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Similar wind speeds are observed off the Yucatan peninsula,particularly from 20N to 22.5N between 89W and 93W. These winds are the result of local effects associated with a thermal trough. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are observed elsewhere, except in the NE Gulf where light to gentle winds and slight seas are occurring. Cold air stratocumulus cloudsare moving across South Florida, the Florida Keys and the Straitsof Florida into the SE Gulf. For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place and maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds and mostly moderate seas through Sat, except in the NE and N-central parts of the basin where mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Expect stronger winds to pulse off the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf Sun and Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA An upper-low is inducing a surface trough that extends from theAtlantic southward to Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over the northern Leeward Islands. A band-like of multilayer clouds, associated with strong westerly winds aloft, extends from western Venezuela across the SE Caribbean and the Windward Islands into the tropical Atlantic. Some convective activity is also noted in the Windward Islands. A ridge north of the Bahamas is forcing fresh to strong NE winds with seas 5 to 7 ft through the Windward Passage and to the lee of Cuba. Fresh to locally strong winds with seas 5 to 7 ft are also occurring just north of Colombia. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 3 to 5 ft.For the forecast, high pressure over the west-central Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will maintain fresh trade winds and moderate seas off the coast of Colombia through tonight, then mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected the remainder of the week. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds and moderate seas will persist south of Cuba, and in the Windward Passage through tonight. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin late in theweek. ATLANTIC OCEAN As previously mentioned, an upper-low is inducing a surface troughthat extends from 31N63W southward to Puerto Rico. Scattered moderateconvection is occurring from 18N to 23N between 60W and 65W. Farthernortheast, a stationary front extends from 31N35W to 30N50W. Isolatedmoderate convection is occurring within 60 NM of the front. A Bermuda-Azores High located north of the forecast waters is interacting withthe surface trough to cause fresh to strong NE winds from Bermuda,across the Bahamas, and to the Cuban coast. Seas are 8 to 11 ft east of the Bahamas per altimeter data. A moderate pressure gradientbetween the Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressure in the vicinity over the ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh NE to E trades andmoderate to rough seas over the remainder of the forecast waters.Near the coast of NW Africa, NE winds are fresh to strong north of 27N and east of 16W with seas of 8 to 10 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned surface trough will drift west toward Hispaniola today, then will remain nearlystationary through Fri while gradually dissipating. Fresh to strongNE winds and rough seas will persist west of the trough through tonight, with conditions gradually improving thereafter as the trough weakens. High pressure will follow the trough. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to move off the coast of northeastFlorida Sun night. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front. |
