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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on the remnants of Lorenzo, located over the central tropical Atlantic.Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL0015 UTC Thu Oct 16 2025Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC
.SPECIAL FEATURES The Remnants Of Lorenzo is centered near 23.1N 42.5W at 15/2100 UTC or 1130 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NE at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are estimatedto be around 12-14 ft (4.0-4.5 m). Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 21N to 24N between 42W and 45W.Visible satellite imagery shows that Lorenzo no longer has a well-defined circulation and has dissipated. Recent microwave imagery also suggested that the system had opened to its west. Theremnants are moving toward the NE and this motion is expected to continue with a faster forward speed for the next day. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the final Lorenzo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details .TROPICAL WAVES A tropical wave extends along 27.5W, from 06N to 15N just WSW ofthe Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at around 15 kt. Nearbyconvection is described with the monsoon trough/ITCZ below.A tropical wave extends along 41.5W, from 03N to 14N, moving W atat around 20 kt. Nearby convection is described with the monsoon trough/ITCZ below.The tropical wave that was previously analyzed near 57W/58W has become ill defined and absorbed into a broader deep layered troughing. A surface trough is now analyzed from 20N57W to 14N59.5W to the N of Barbados. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16N to 19N between 54W and the trough .MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Senegal near 14.5N16.5W to 08N25.5W to 10N38W. The ITCZ extends from06N42W to near the coast of French Guiana and Suriname at 06N44.5Wthen NW to along the coasts of Guyana and Venezuela and into theSE Caribbean Sea at 12N66W. Widely scattered moderate convectionis noted from 05N to 11N between 25W and 38W, and from 03N to 10Nbetween 38W and 50W.Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring near the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough in the SWCaribbean Sea, from 08.5N to 15N between 78W and 84W .GULF OF AMERICA A weak surface trough is analyzed in the S-central Gulf, extendingfrom 26N89W through the Yucatan Channel and into the NW CaribbeanSea. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed onconventional satellite imagery near the axis just to the NNW ofthe Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, broad high pressure is over thebasin. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are noted S of 27N and E of the trough. Mainly gentle NE-E winds are elsewhere, except moderate NW just offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Seas are 3-5 ft in theSE Gulf to the E of the trough, 1-3 ft in the NW Gulf, and 2-4 ftelsewhere.For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region this week, resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slightto moderate seas over much of the basin. Winds are forecast to increase to fresh speeds over the eastern Gulf Thu night through Sat night as the pressure gradient tightens some across the area. Winds will veer to the SE and S toward the end of the week as highpressure over the SE United States shifts eastward into the western Atlantic . CARIBBEAN SEA The passage of two cold fronts over the SW N Atlantic waters andthe presence of now the Remnants of Lorenzo in the central Atlantic continues to support a weak pressure pattern in the Caribbean, resulting in mainly light to gentle winds, except for locally moderate southeasterly winds over the far southeast portions. This is supporting slight seas basin-wide. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted in the SE Caribbean where the ITCZ terminates and with deep layered troughing off to the NE, which could lead to locally higher winds and seas at the surface.For the forecast, a cold front will move across Cuba and the NW Caribbean through Thu, then will be reinforced by Fri. Moderate tolocally fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the wake ofthe front. Unsettled weather conditions will persist along and ahead of the frontal boundary. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradientwill support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the basin through Sat. The trade winds will become mainly fresh across the eastern Caribbean by Sat evening asa well defined tropical wave approaches the Lesser Antilles. The tropical wave is forecast to move across the E Caribbean on Sun and fresh trades will extend to the central basin waters. Fresh tostrong winds and rough seas are expected behind the wave axis. ATLANTIC OCEAN Please refer to the Special Features section for further details on now the Remnants of Lorenzo in the central Atlantic.A cold front extends from 31N59W to the SE Bahamas and then alongthe N coast of Cuba. Scattered to numerous showers andthunderstorms are noted within 180-240 nm SE of the front. Freshto strong SW winds are N of 25N and E of the front to around 55Wwhere seas are also 6-9 ft, locally higher in and near convection.A reinforcing cold front is not far behind, extending from just SEof Bermuda near 31N63.5W to 27N73.5W to just N of Cape Canaveral,Florida. No deep convection is noted with this reinforcing andtrailing front, however fresh to strong winds and 6-9 ft seas arefound N of 25N. To the E, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms cover abroad area across the waters N of 26N and E of a surface troughwhich is analyzed from 31N42W to 26N48W. A large area of strong tonear gale-force winds is noted N of 26N within 420-600 nm ahead of the trough. Seas are 8-14 ft across these waters. A broad ridgeextends from the Canary Islands SW through parent 1017 mb highpressure found near 23N27W, continuing to 15N53W in the wake ofLorenzo. Gentle anticyclonic winds are found under this ridge.Winds are mainly moderate across the remainder of the TropicalAtlantic waters, except moderate to fresh from 11N to 20N betweenthe coast of Africa through the Cabo Verde Islands to 30W. Seasare 3-5 ft across the area S of 25N and W of 58W, 4-7 ft between40W and 59W, 4-6 ft between 20W and 40W, and 3-5 ft E of 20W.For the forecast W of 55W, A cold front extending from 31N62W across the SE Bahamas and western Cuba will move SE across the forecast waters through Fri before dissipating. The front will be reinforcing tonight, reaching from 31N60W to 21N75W by Thu morning, and from 31N55W to Hispaniola by Fri morning. Another reinforcing front will follow the main front, and it is forecast to extend from 31N60W to the Straits of Florida by Fri morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected on either side of the front mainly across the waters N of 25N through at least Sat. |
