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MIKE DELEONARDIS WEATHER

 
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />0615 UTC Fri May 16 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />0425 UTC.<br /><br />

SPECIAL FEATURES

<br /><br />Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between high <br />pressure of 1024 mb centered just NW of Madeira Island and <br />relatively lower pressures in NW Africa sustain gale-force N-NE <br />winds in the eastern portion of the Meteo-France marine zone of <br />Agadir. These conditions are forecast to last until 16/00 UTC <br />tonight. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast <br />listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int<br /><br />

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

<br /><br />The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of <br />The Gambia near 13N16W and continues southwestward to 06N23W. The<br />ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 02N35W and to 01N50W. Scattered <br />moderate convection is observed from 03N to 07N and between 20W<br />and 38W.<br /><br />

GULF OF AMERICA

<br /><br />A weak ridge positioned over the NE Gulf waters maintains<br />generally tranquil weather conditions across the basin. Moderate<br />to locally fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas are noted in the<br />western half of the Gulf (west of 90W), while moderate or weaker<br />winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.<br /><br />For the forecast, tighter pressure gradient between the surface ridge<br />over the eastern Gulf and lower pressure over eastern Mexico will<br />sustain moderate to fresh southeasterly winds and moderate seas at<br />the western Gulf through Tue. Pulsing fresh to locally strong E <br />winds are likely each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan <br />Peninsula as a trough develops daily and drifts westward.<br /><br />



CARIBBEAN SEA

<br /><br />Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present over the<br />SW Caribbean, mainly S of 12N. The storm activity is associated <br />with the eastern extent of the EPAC monsoon trough and plenty of<br />tropical moisture. Similar convective activity is impacting<br />Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, especially the southern coasts and<br />nearby waters. Fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are<br />occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Farther east, the subtropical<br />ridge north of the islands supports moderate to locally fresh<br />easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the central and<br />eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight<br />to moderate seas prevail.<br /><br />For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to SE winds will <br />pulse in the Gulf of Honduras each afternoon and night through Tue<br />night. Fresh ENE winds with moderate seas should linger at the <br />south- central basin until late Fri morning, and occur at the lee <br />of Cuba and near the Windward Passage on Fri and Sat nights. <br />Starting Mon, easterly trade winds and swell will gradually build <br />at the eastern basin, then spread westward into the southwestern <br />basin. <br /><br />



ATLANTIC OCEAN


<br /><br />An extensive subtropical ridge centered near 33N52W dominates the<br />tropical Atlantic waters. Fresh easterly trade winds and moderate<br />seas are found off northern Hispaniola. The pressure gradient <br />between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support<br />moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N and between 35W and<br />65W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass.<br />Seas in these waters are 5-9 ft. Farther north, a surface trough <br />extends from 31N31W to 26N51W. Moderate northerly winds and seas <br />of 6-10 ft are found behind the trough axis. In the eastern<br />Atlantic, especially east of 20W and north of 15N, fresh to<br />locally strong northerly winds and moderate to locally rough seas<br />are evident. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to<br />moderate seas are prevalent. <br /><br />For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh ENE to E<br />winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and the Windward Passage <br />each night through Sat night. Moderate to fresh easterly trade <br />winds and rough seas are going to persist in the Atlantic waters <br />near and east of the Lesser Antilles through Sun night. In the <br />long run, a cold front moving off the Carolina coast will bring <br />moderate to fresh SW winds and building seas north of 28N from Sat<br />night through Mon morning. <br /><br />
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
800 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Weather Outlook
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
800 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />0615 UTC Fri May 16 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />0425 UTC.<br /><br />

SPECIAL FEATURES

<br /><br />Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between high <br />pressure of 1024 mb centered just NW of Madeira Island and <br />relatively lower pressures in NW Africa sustain gale-force N-NE <br />winds in the eastern portion of the Meteo-France marine zone of <br />Agadir. These conditions are forecast to last until 16/00 UTC <br />tonight. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast <br />listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int<br /><br />

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

<br /><br />The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of <br />The Gambia near 13N16W and continues southwestward to 06N23W. The<br />ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 02N35W and to 01N50W. Scattered <br />moderate convection is observed from 03N to 07N and between 20W<br />and 38W.<br /><br />

GULF OF AMERICA

<br /><br />A weak ridge positioned over the NE Gulf waters maintains<br />generally tranquil weather conditions across the basin. Moderate<br />to locally fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas are noted in the<br />western half of the Gulf (west of 90W), while moderate or weaker<br />winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.<br /><br />For the forecast, tighter pressure gradient between the surface ridge<br />over the eastern Gulf and lower pressure over eastern Mexico will<br />sustain moderate to fresh southeasterly winds and moderate seas at<br />the western Gulf through Tue. Pulsing fresh to locally strong E <br />winds are likely each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan <br />Peninsula as a trough develops daily and drifts westward.<br /><br />



CARIBBEAN SEA

<br /><br />Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present over the<br />SW Caribbean, mainly S of 12N. The storm activity is associated <br />with the eastern extent of the EPAC monsoon trough and plenty of<br />tropical moisture. Similar convective activity is impacting<br />Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, especially the southern coasts and<br />nearby waters. Fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are<br />occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Farther east, the subtropical<br />ridge north of the islands supports moderate to locally fresh<br />easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the central and<br />eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight<br />to moderate seas prevail.<br /><br />For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to SE winds will <br />pulse in the Gulf of Honduras each afternoon and night through Tue<br />night. Fresh ENE winds with moderate seas should linger at the <br />south- central basin until late Fri morning, and occur at the lee <br />of Cuba and near the Windward Passage on Fri and Sat nights. <br />Starting Mon, easterly trade winds and swell will gradually build <br />at the eastern basin, then spread westward into the southwestern <br />basin. <br /><br />



ATLANTIC OCEAN


<br /><br />An extensive subtropical ridge centered near 33N52W dominates the<br />tropical Atlantic waters. Fresh easterly trade winds and moderate<br />seas are found off northern Hispaniola. The pressure gradient <br />between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support<br />moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N and between 35W and<br />65W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass.<br />Seas in these waters are 5-9 ft. Farther north, a surface trough <br />extends from 31N31W to 26N51W. Moderate northerly winds and seas <br />of 6-10 ft are found behind the trough axis. In the eastern<br />Atlantic, especially east of 20W and north of 15N, fresh to<br />locally strong northerly winds and moderate to locally rough seas<br />are evident. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to<br />moderate seas are prevalent. <br /><br />For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh ENE to E<br />winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and the Windward Passage <br />each night through Sat night. Moderate to fresh easterly trade <br />winds and rough seas are going to persist in the Atlantic waters <br />near and east of the Lesser Antilles through Sun night. In the <br />long run, a cold front moving off the Carolina coast will bring <br />moderate to fresh SW winds and building seas north of 28N from Sat<br />night through Mon morning. <br /><br />

Tropical Formation Graphics
48 Hour Storm Probability
48 Hour Storm Probability
Atlantic Ocean Temperatures
Atlantic Ocean Temperatures
Gulf of Mexico Temperatures
Gulf of Mexico Temperatures
North Atlantic
North Atlantic
Ocean Heat Content
Ocean Heat Content
SST Anomalies
SST Anomalies

 
Current Tornado & Severe Thunderstorm Watches
Tornado Watch 258
WW 0258 Image
Tornado Watch Number 258
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern Lower Michigan
Lake Erie
Lake Huron

* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 1130 PM
until 500 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible.
Tornado Watch 256
WW 0256 Image
Tornado Watch Number 256
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
820 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Lower Michigan
Lake Michigan

* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 820 PM
until 300 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible.
 
US Severe Weather Outlooks
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes this evening. Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, very large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Severe thunderstorms are also expected later this evening into tonight from the the lower Ohio Valley into the Ozarks.
Today's Outlook
Today's Weather Outlook
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Tornado Threat
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Day 1 Rainfall Amounts
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Significant River Flood Outlook
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Data sources: mesonet.org, hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu, web.uwm.edu, tropic.ssec.wisc.edu, noaa.gov (National Hurricane Center, Ocean Prediction Center, Climate Prediction Center, Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center), weather.gov