|
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
410 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: East-Central Subtropical Atlantic:An area of low pressure located about 900 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has been producing a small but persistent area of showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center since this morning. However, the low is forecast to move southwestward at 10 to 15 mph into an area of stronger upper-level winds tonight and tomorrow, and additional development is not expected. No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system unless conditions warrant. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2024, and Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the remainder of the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Apr 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC.
SPECIAL FEATURES HEAVY RAINFALL IN HISPANIOLA A cold front is within 180 nm to the north of the areas that are between SE Cuba and Hispaniola. A surface trough is along 24N65W 16N67W, from the Atlantic Ocean, across Puerto Rico, to the NE Caribbean Sea. The southern point of an Atlantic Ocean surface trough is reaching 20N62W. The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, is showing broad upper level cyclonic wind flow that is forecast to be Hispaniola and the Yucatan Channel. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds cover the areas that are from 16N in the Caribbean Sea to 22N in the Atlantic Ocean between 67W and 75W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 18N to 19N between 71W and 72W in the SW part of the Dominican Republic. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within a 30 nm radius of 18N70.5W in the coastal areas of the Dominican Republic. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the areas of the cloudiness. The precipitation is forecast to continue on Thursday. The thunderstorms are capable of producing heavy rainshowers, and increasing the chance for flash flooding, especially in hilly terrains and in low-lying areas. Please, refer to local weather service offices for more details about this event. GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN Rough seas, in general, are from 20N northward between 30W and 50W. A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 23N37W. Near gale- force to gale- force NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas, are within 95 nm of the low pressure center in the northern quadrant, from 24N to 25N between 37W and 39W. Expect strong to near gale-force NE winds, and rough seas, are from 23N to 26N between 36W and 40W. Expect also: fresh to strong NE winds, and rough seas, from 27N to 31N between 35W and 42W. Fresh and slower winds, and rough seas in N to NE swell, are elsewhere from 18N to 31N between 35W and 47W. Expect those conditions to continue for the next 12 hours or so. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information. A surface trough is along 27N27W, to 14N36W 10N47W. Precipitation: scattered moderate is from 60 nm to 180 nm to the east of the 23N37W low pressure center. Scattered moderate is from 26N to 30N between 78W and 81W. Isolated moderate is from 20N to 24N between 27W and 32W. close to the northern end of the surface trough. MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 02N16W, to the Equator along 21W. The ITCZ continues from the Equator along 21W, to the Equator along 37W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N southward. GULF OF MEXICO A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 29N87W. A surface ridge extends from the 29N87W high pressure center, to the middle Texas Gulf coast. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the entire area. An inland Mexico surface trough curves through the Yucatan Peninsula, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, northwestward. Slight to moderate seas are: off the coast of NE Mexico, in the central parts of the SW corner of the area, and in the Straits of Florida. Slight seas are elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. High pressure of 1020 mb centered over the NE Gulf near 29N87W is allowing for light to gentle winds over that part of the Gulf through Thu, and for moderate to fresh southeast winds over most of the western part of the Gulf also through Thu. The pressure gradient will tighten over the Gulf starting Thu night resulting in increasing east to southeast fresh to strong winds over just about the entire basin through Sun night. Seas will build to 10 ft in the NW Gulf on Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the period. CARIBBEAN SEA Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the potential for heavy rainfall in Hispaniola. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are from Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica southward between 65W and the eastern coast of Central America from Costa Rica to eastern Honduras. The Pacific Ocean surface trough, that is to the east of the monsoon trough, is along 09N75W in Colombia beyond 07N80W. Similar isolated moderate to locally strong is in the coastal waters between Colombia and Costa Rica. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are spread throughout the area. Moderate seas are from 15N southward between 71W and 81W, and in the Windward Passage. Slight to moderate seas are elsewhere from 80W eastward, and in the coastal waters of SE Nicaragua. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. High pressure north of the Greater Antilles is sustaining moderate to fresh trade winds, except for fresh to strong winds in the Windward Passage and in the south- central Caribbean. The gradient associated to the high pressure will maintain fresh to strong winds just north of Colombia, through the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba through Thu night. Looking ahead, strengthening of the high pressure starting late Fri will also force fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and just south of Hispaniola through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the potential for heavy rainfall in Hispaniola. A cold front passes through 31N57W, to 25N65W, 23N70W, through the SE Bahamas. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is along cold front from 26N to 29N between 58W and 63W. Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of the rest of the cold front. A surface trough is about 300 nm to the SSE of the cold front. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the surface trough. Moderate to rough seas are from the cold front toward the north and the northwest. Fresh NE winds are from 04N to 30N between 40W and 53W. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE to E winds are between 53W and the 24N65W-to-Puerto Rico surface trough. Fresh NE winds are from 25N northward from 20W eastward. Moderate and fresh NE to E winds are from 26N northward between 20W and 30W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A weakening cold front extends from 31N57W to 25N67W and to near 22N76W. The front will stall and gradually weaken to a dissipating trough early Thu. Northwest to north swell near the front will subside late tonight. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast Thu and Thu night. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to merge with the trough and progress eastward, reaching from near 31N57W to eastern Cuba early Sat morning, from near 25N55W to Hispaniola early Sun, then stall and weaken into a trough over the far southeastern part late Sun through Mon night. North swell behind this next front will build seas over most of the area northeast of the Bahamas by Sun. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will result in fresh to strong north to northeast winds behind the front from late Fri through Sun. By late Sun, these winds are expected to be at mainly fresh speeds south of 29N and west f 60W. At that time, fresh to strong west to northwest winds are expected over the far northeast forecast along with building sea. |
