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MIKE DELEONARDIS WEATHER

 
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Nov 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N20W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 05N20W to 00N39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 15W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida to a 1016 mb surface low centered off the Texas coast near 26N96W. Buoy and platform observations along with a scatterometer satellite pass from 0400 UTC indicated fresh NW to N winds near the low pressure and within 60 nm of the Texas coast south of Corpus Christi, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Weak high pressure centered over the northeast Gulf dominates the pattern elsewhere across the basin, supporting light to gentle breezes and slight seas. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident. For the forecast, the low pressure will move into the southeast Gulf through tonight then dissipate along with the front, ahead of another cold front expected to enter the northeast Gulf this evening. The second front will move across the eastern Gulf through Tue night, allowing high pressure to build over the northern Gulf through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Broad high pressure northeast of the Bahamas is supporting moderate NE winds across the central Caribbean, with fresh winds funneling in the lee of both Cuba and Hispaniola, off Nicaragua, and off Colombia, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Light to gentle breezes persist elsewhere with 2 to 4 ft seas, except a little higher near Atlantic passages where N swell persists. A few showers are noted north of Panama, but no significant convection is noted elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will persist over all but the NW Caribbean through Mon. Moderate N to NE swell will continue across the Atlantic waters east of 70W and through the NE Caribbean passages through late tonight. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean Mon night, then stall and dissipate Tue night through Wed. High pressure north of the front will induce strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean Tue night through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A cold front reaches from near 31N60W to the central Bahamas, where it becomes a stationary front to the Straits of Florida. Broad 1019 mb high pressure is centered east of northeast Florida near 29N75W. This pattern is supporting light to gentle winds west of 60W. Large northerly swell has been moving across the Atlantic waters east of 60W over the past couple of days, but this is starting to subside from west to east. Latest buoy and altimeter satellite data show seas below 8 ft west of 60W, except for an new area of swell 8 ft or greater north of 28N and east of 65W. In addition, seas still exceed 8 ft east of 60W, north of 20N, mainly in N swell. For the forecast west of 65W, the front will dissipate from 26N65W to northwest Cuba late today into early Mon. A reinforcing cold front will move off northeast Florida late today, reach from Bermuda to southeast Florida by late Mon, then start to stall from 27N65W to central Cuba Tue through Wed. Meanwhile, northerly swell will continue to move through the waters east of the Bahamas into early next week, then subside Mon night through Tue. Farther east, an earlier scatterometer satellite pass captured the western edge of a low pressure area centered near 26.5N55W. A broad ridge dominates the eastern Atlantic. Divergence aloft east of a mid/upper trough along 40W is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 20N between 30W and 40W. There is some evidence a surface trough is embedded in this area, and successive scatterometer satellite passes have been showing a sharp gradient with strong winds noted northeast of line roughly from the Cabo Verde Islands to 31N40W, approximating where this trough should be. Seas are 8 to 13 ft northeast of line as well. Gentle to moderate trade winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted elsewhere. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
700 AM EST Sun Nov 28 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Weather Outlook
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
700 AM EST Sun Nov 28 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Nov 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N20W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 05N20W to 00N39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 15W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida to a 1016 mb surface low centered off the Texas coast near 26N96W. Buoy and platform observations along with a scatterometer satellite pass from 0400 UTC indicated fresh NW to N winds near the low pressure and within 60 nm of the Texas coast south of Corpus Christi, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Weak high pressure centered over the northeast Gulf dominates the pattern elsewhere across the basin, supporting light to gentle breezes and slight seas. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident. For the forecast, the low pressure will move into the southeast Gulf through tonight then dissipate along with the front, ahead of another cold front expected to enter the northeast Gulf this evening. The second front will move across the eastern Gulf through Tue night, allowing high pressure to build over the northern Gulf through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Broad high pressure northeast of the Bahamas is supporting moderate NE winds across the central Caribbean, with fresh winds funneling in the lee of both Cuba and Hispaniola, off Nicaragua, and off Colombia, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Light to gentle breezes persist elsewhere with 2 to 4 ft seas, except a little higher near Atlantic passages where N swell persists. A few showers are noted north of Panama, but no significant convection is noted elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will persist over all but the NW Caribbean through Mon. Moderate N to NE swell will continue across the Atlantic waters east of 70W and through the NE Caribbean passages through late tonight. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean Mon night, then stall and dissipate Tue night through Wed. High pressure north of the front will induce strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean Tue night through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A cold front reaches from near 31N60W to the central Bahamas, where it becomes a stationary front to the Straits of Florida. Broad 1019 mb high pressure is centered east of northeast Florida near 29N75W. This pattern is supporting light to gentle winds west of 60W. Large northerly swell has been moving across the Atlantic waters east of 60W over the past couple of days, but this is starting to subside from west to east. Latest buoy and altimeter satellite data show seas below 8 ft west of 60W, except for an new area of swell 8 ft or greater north of 28N and east of 65W. In addition, seas still exceed 8 ft east of 60W, north of 20N, mainly in N swell. For the forecast west of 65W, the front will dissipate from 26N65W to northwest Cuba late today into early Mon. A reinforcing cold front will move off northeast Florida late today, reach from Bermuda to southeast Florida by late Mon, then start to stall from 27N65W to central Cuba Tue through Wed. Meanwhile, northerly swell will continue to move through the waters east of the Bahamas into early next week, then subside Mon night through Tue. Farther east, an earlier scatterometer satellite pass captured the western edge of a low pressure area centered near 26.5N55W. A broad ridge dominates the eastern Atlantic. Divergence aloft east of a mid/upper trough along 40W is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 20N between 30W and 40W. There is some evidence a surface trough is embedded in this area, and successive scatterometer satellite passes have been showing a sharp gradient with strong winds noted northeast of line roughly from the Cabo Verde Islands to 31N40W, approximating where this trough should be. Seas are 8 to 13 ft northeast of line as well. Gentle to moderate trade winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted elsewhere. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

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Data sources: mesonet.org, hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu, web.uwm.edu, tropic.ssec.wisc.edu, noaa.gov (National Hurricane Center, Ocean Prediction Center, Climate Prediction Center, Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center), weather.gov