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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave during the next several days. Some development of this system is possible while it approaches the Lesser Antilles during the early to middle part of next week and moves generally west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles towards the latter part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jul 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC.
TROPICAL WAVES An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W, south of 22N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 14N and between 24W and 30W. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W, south of 22N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 13N and between 30W and 38W. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 80W, south of 19N, moving westward at 20-25 kt. A few showers are evident near the trough axis. MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 11N35W and to 07N53W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 11N and between 39W and 49W. GULF OF MEXICO A weak surface trough in the western Gulf and divergence aloft continues to generate a few showers and isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity of the trough and the northern Gulf waters. The Gulf of Mexico is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic that extends westward into the basin. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds are found off northern and western Yucatan. Seas in these waters are 2-3 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place across the Gulf waters through Wed allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan over the next several days. A weak high pressure cell will develop over the eastern Gulf by Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA A broad upper level trough centered near the central Bahamas induces scattered showers in the north-central Caribbean, also affecting Jamaica and Hispaniola. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that winds to near gale-force are occurring in association with the strongest convection. The basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge positioned north of the islands. This ridge forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds over much of the central and SW Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the eastern Caribbean, Gulf of Honduras and lee of Cuba. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a tropical wave will move across the western Caribbean on Sat, reaching the Yucatan Peninsula on Sun. The Atlantic ridge will build over the east and central Caribbean in the wake of the wave. This pattern will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean into the middle of next week. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds and building seas over the northwest Caribbean behind the wave axis through Sun with locally strong winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Honduras Sun night. Looking ahead, an area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave during the next several days. Some development of this system will be possible while it approaches the Lesser Antilles during the early to middle part of next week and moves generally west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles toward the latter part of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN A broad upper level low near the central Bahamas continues to produce isolated showers over much of the SW North Atlantic, especially west of 70W. The tropical Atlantic is under the influence of an expansive subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic. Fresh easterly winds are found off northern Hispaniola, along with seas of 4-6 ft. In the far northeast Atlantic, fresh to locally strong northerly winds are occurring north of 25N and east of 20W, with the strongest winds affecting the water passages of the Canary Islands. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores high will dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through the next several days. It will shift eastward ahead of a weak cold front moving off the Carolina coast on Sat. The front will stall then dissipate between northeast Florida and Bermuda Sun into MOn. The pattern will support fresh to strong E winds off Hispaniola through Sun, and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere into Tue. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase northeast of the Leeward Islands by late Tue associated with an approaching tropical wave. Looking ahead, an area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave during the next several days. Some development of this system will be possible while it approaches the Lesser Antilles during the early to middle part of next week and moves generally west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles toward the latter part of the week. |
