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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
800 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />0615 UTC Fri May 16 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />0425 UTC.<br /><br />
SPECIAL FEATURES <br /><br />Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between high <br />pressure of 1024 mb centered just NW of Madeira Island and <br />relatively lower pressures in NW Africa sustain gale-force N-NE <br />winds in the eastern portion of the Meteo-France marine zone of <br />Agadir. These conditions are forecast to last until 16/00 UTC <br />tonight. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast <br />listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int<br /><br /> MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ <br /><br />The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of <br />The Gambia near 13N16W and continues southwestward to 06N23W. The<br />ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 02N35W and to 01N50W. Scattered <br />moderate convection is observed from 03N to 07N and between 20W<br />and 38W.<br /><br /> GULF OF AMERICA <br /><br />A weak ridge positioned over the NE Gulf waters maintains<br />generally tranquil weather conditions across the basin. Moderate<br />to locally fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas are noted in the<br />western half of the Gulf (west of 90W), while moderate or weaker<br />winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.<br /><br />For the forecast, tighter pressure gradient between the surface ridge<br />over the eastern Gulf and lower pressure over eastern Mexico will<br />sustain moderate to fresh southeasterly winds and moderate seas at<br />the western Gulf through Tue. Pulsing fresh to locally strong E <br />winds are likely each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan <br />Peninsula as a trough develops daily and drifts westward.<br /><br /> CARIBBEAN SEA <br /><br />Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present over the<br />SW Caribbean, mainly S of 12N. The storm activity is associated <br />with the eastern extent of the EPAC monsoon trough and plenty of<br />tropical moisture. Similar convective activity is impacting<br />Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, especially the southern coasts and<br />nearby waters. Fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are<br />occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Farther east, the subtropical<br />ridge north of the islands supports moderate to locally fresh<br />easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the central and<br />eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight<br />to moderate seas prevail.<br /><br />For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to SE winds will <br />pulse in the Gulf of Honduras each afternoon and night through Tue<br />night. Fresh ENE winds with moderate seas should linger at the <br />south- central basin until late Fri morning, and occur at the lee <br />of Cuba and near the Windward Passage on Fri and Sat nights. <br />Starting Mon, easterly trade winds and swell will gradually build <br />at the eastern basin, then spread westward into the southwestern <br />basin. <br /><br /> ATLANTIC OCEAN <br /><br />An extensive subtropical ridge centered near 33N52W dominates the<br />tropical Atlantic waters. Fresh easterly trade winds and moderate<br />seas are found off northern Hispaniola. The pressure gradient <br />between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support<br />moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N and between 35W and<br />65W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass.<br />Seas in these waters are 5-9 ft. Farther north, a surface trough <br />extends from 31N31W to 26N51W. Moderate northerly winds and seas <br />of 6-10 ft are found behind the trough axis. In the eastern<br />Atlantic, especially east of 20W and north of 15N, fresh to<br />locally strong northerly winds and moderate to locally rough seas<br />are evident. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to<br />moderate seas are prevalent. <br /><br />For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh ENE to E<br />winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and the Windward Passage <br />each night through Sat night. Moderate to fresh easterly trade <br />winds and rough seas are going to persist in the Atlantic waters <br />near and east of the Lesser Antilles through Sun night. In the <br />long run, a cold front moving off the Carolina coast will bring <br />moderate to fresh SW winds and building seas north of 28N from Sat<br />night through Mon morning. <br /><br /> |
