View Mike's Photography site
×

MIKE DELEONARDIS WEATHER

ACTIVE STORMS
No Active Tornado Watches
2 Active Mesoscale Discussions
2 Active Severe Weather Watches
NO ACTIVE TROPICAL SYSTEMS
Current US Satellite Image
ACTIVE STORMS
No Active Tornado Watches
2 Active Mesoscale Discussions
2 Active Severe Weather Watches
NO ACTIVE TROPICAL SYSTEMS
Current US Satellite Image
 
Current Tropical Weather Outlook
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2317 UTC Mon Jul 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVES

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending south of 24N with axis near 26W, moving west around 10 kt. A large area of enhanced moisture is seen on TPW imagery in association with this tropical wave. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N- 12N between 22W-27W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending south of 26N with axis near 39W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-09N between 38W-43W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 78W, moving westward around 20 kt. A plume of enhanced moisture accompanies this tropical wave, as seen on TPW imagery. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N-17N between 78W-83W.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to 09N46W. The ITCZ extends from 09N46W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the section above, no significant convection is currently occurring.

GULF OF MEXICO

Upper-level anticyclonic flow is over the southeastern Gulf. Mid- level troughing extends along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. southwestward to the NE Gulf. Mid-level troughing is also over the SW Gulf. A surface ridge extends from the Bermuda High to the Florida Straits to the central Gulf. The western and central Gulf are free of any significant precipitation. Isolated to scattered showers and tstorms are found over portions of the eastern Gulf, and near the U.S. Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida peninsula. The surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters into mid week producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas with the exception of moderate to locally fresh winds near the W coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. Looking ahead, the ridge will shift north starting mid week, ahead of a trough that will move westward across Florida and into the SE Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the Caribbean. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the Florida Straits, contributing toward light to gentle winds in the Caribbean north of 18.5N. Relatively dry air due to Saharan dust covers most of the eastern Caribbean east of 72W. In the far SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered strong convection mainly south of 11N between 79W-84W. An earlier ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong trades across the central portion of the basin, with moderate trades elsewhere south of 18.5N. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge N of the area and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through mid week. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean will reach the western basin tonight and move out of the basin through mid week. Another tropical wave farther east in the Atlantic will approach the eastern Caribbean by mid week, and move across the central Caribbean by late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A strong mid- to upper-level trough located over the far eastern U.S. just inland from the Atlantic seaboard is inducing large scale rising motion ahead of it in the Atlantic north of 25N between 65W-75W, where scattered moderate showers and tstorms are observed. TPW imagery shows enhanced moisture being drawn north- northeastward from the Florida Straits and Bahamas. Fresh S winds are seen on an earlier ASCAT pass north of 27N between 73W-78W. The 1023 mb Bermuda High is near 30N60W. A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from the high, south of the weather described above, toward Cuba. Fresh S winds are expected over the waters north of 27N between 70W and 80W tonight due to the pressure gradient between high pressure to the east and lower pressure over Florida. Otherwise, expect fresh to locally strong winds off the N coast of Hispaniola through the entire forecast period.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Weather Outlook
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2317 UTC Mon Jul 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVES

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending south of 24N with axis near 26W, moving west around 10 kt. A large area of enhanced moisture is seen on TPW imagery in association with this tropical wave. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N- 12N between 22W-27W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending south of 26N with axis near 39W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-09N between 38W-43W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 78W, moving westward around 20 kt. A plume of enhanced moisture accompanies this tropical wave, as seen on TPW imagery. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N-17N between 78W-83W.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to 09N46W. The ITCZ extends from 09N46W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the section above, no significant convection is currently occurring.

GULF OF MEXICO

Upper-level anticyclonic flow is over the southeastern Gulf. Mid- level troughing extends along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. southwestward to the NE Gulf. Mid-level troughing is also over the SW Gulf. A surface ridge extends from the Bermuda High to the Florida Straits to the central Gulf. The western and central Gulf are free of any significant precipitation. Isolated to scattered showers and tstorms are found over portions of the eastern Gulf, and near the U.S. Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida peninsula. The surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters into mid week producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas with the exception of moderate to locally fresh winds near the W coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. Looking ahead, the ridge will shift north starting mid week, ahead of a trough that will move westward across Florida and into the SE Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the Caribbean. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the Florida Straits, contributing toward light to gentle winds in the Caribbean north of 18.5N. Relatively dry air due to Saharan dust covers most of the eastern Caribbean east of 72W. In the far SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered strong convection mainly south of 11N between 79W-84W. An earlier ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong trades across the central portion of the basin, with moderate trades elsewhere south of 18.5N. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge N of the area and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through mid week. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean will reach the western basin tonight and move out of the basin through mid week. Another tropical wave farther east in the Atlantic will approach the eastern Caribbean by mid week, and move across the central Caribbean by late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A strong mid- to upper-level trough located over the far eastern U.S. just inland from the Atlantic seaboard is inducing large scale rising motion ahead of it in the Atlantic north of 25N between 65W-75W, where scattered moderate showers and tstorms are observed. TPW imagery shows enhanced moisture being drawn north- northeastward from the Florida Straits and Bahamas. Fresh S winds are seen on an earlier ASCAT pass north of 27N between 73W-78W. The 1023 mb Bermuda High is near 30N60W. A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from the high, south of the weather described above, toward Cuba. Fresh S winds are expected over the waters north of 27N between 70W and 80W tonight due to the pressure gradient between high pressure to the east and lower pressure over Florida. Otherwise, expect fresh to locally strong winds off the N coast of Hispaniola through the entire forecast period.

Tropical Formation Graphics
48 Hour Storm Probability
48 Hour Storm Probability
Atlantic Ocean Temperatures
Atlantic Ocean Temperatures
Gulf of Mexico Temperatures
Gulf of Mexico Temperatures
North Atlantic
North Atlantic
Ocean Heat Content
Ocean Heat Content
SST Anomalies
SST Anomalies

 
Current Tornado & Severe Thunderstorm Watches
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 367
WW 0367 Image
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 367
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
615 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Minnesota

* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 615 PM
until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366
WW 0366 Image
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 366
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
335 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Colorado
Western Kansas
Western and central Nebraska

* Effective this Monday afternoon from 335 PM until Midnight CDT.

* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible.
Mesoscale Discussions
SPC MD 1216
MD 1216 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Areas affected... far northeast CO... northwest KS... southwest NE

Concerning... Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366... 

Valid 132341Z - 140145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366
continues.

SUMMARY... Severe gusts ranging from 60-80 mph and large hail are
possible through 02 UTC.

SPC MD 1215
MD 1215 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0610 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Areas affected... OK Panhandle... northern TX Panhandle

Concerning... Severe potential... Watch possible 

Valid 132310Z - 140015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance... 40 percent

SUMMARY... Severe gusts 60-75 mph are possible as thunderstorms
intensify and move east across the northern TX Panhandle and OK
Panhandle.  Trends will be monitored for a possible severe
thunderstorm watch over the next hour.

 
US Severe Weather Outlooks
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Severe thunderstorms are expected from the central High Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight. Severe gusts, possibly significant, large hail and a couple of tornadoes are the threats with the stronger storms.
Today's Outlook
Today's Weather Outlook
Tomorrow's Outlook
Tomorrow's Weather Outlook
Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Weather Outlook
Tornado Threat
Current Tornado Threat
Day 2 Tornadoes
Tomorrow's Tornado Threat
Current Watches
Current Severe Watches
 
Satellite Imagery
Tropics
North Atlantic
North Atlantic
Caribbean
Caribbean
Eastern US
Eastern US
Gulf of Mexico
Gulf of Mexico
Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico
Tropical Atlantic
Tropical Atlantic
North America
USA / Mexico
USA / Mexico
Southeast US
Southeast US
Great Lakes
Great Lakes
Central America
Central America
Southern MS Valley
Southern MS Valley
Eastern East Pacific
Eastern East Pacific
Mexico
Mexico
Northeast US
Northeast US
Northern Rockies
Northern Rockies
Pacific Northwest
Pacific Northwest
Pacific Southwest
Pacific Southwest
Southern Plains
Southern Plains
Southern Rockies
Southern Rockies
Upper MS Valley
Upper MS Valley
South America
Northern South America
Northern South America
Southern South America
Southern South America
 
Tropics Weather Maps
Ocean Graphics
Wind / Wave Analysis
Wind / Wave Analysis
Wind / Wave Analysis
Wind / Wave Analysis
Sea-State Analysis
Sea-State Analysis
Surface Analysis Maps
Gulf of Mexico
Gulf of Mexico
United States
United States
Atlantic Ocean Difax
Atlantic Ocean Difax
Full Atlantic Ocean
Full Atlantic Ocean
East Coast
East Coast
CIMSS Tropical Products
Upper Level Winds
Upper Level Winds
Lower Level Winds
Lower Level Winds
Wind Shear
Wind Shear
Shear Tendency
Shear Tendency
Upper Divergence
Upper Divergence
Lower Convergence
Lower Convergence
Mid-Level Wind Shear
Mid-Level Wind Shear
Water Vapor
Water Vapor
Infrared
Infrared
Saharan Dust
Saharan Dust
UV Index Forecasts
Today's UV Forecast
Today's UV Forecast
Day 2 UV Forecast
Day 2 UV Forecast
Day 3 UV Forecast
Day 3 UV Forecast
Day 4 UV Forecast
Day 4 UV Forecast
UV Index By City
UV Index By City

Space Weather
Northern Aurora Forecast
Northern Aurora Forecast
Southern Aurora Forecast
Southern Aurora Forecast

 
USA Weather Maps
 
Day 1 US Weather Map
Day 1 US Weather Map
Day 2 US Weather Map
Day 2 US Weather Map
Day 3 US Weather Map
Day 3 US Weather Map
US Short Range Forecasts
US Short Range Forecasts
Day 3-7 Hazards
Day 3-7 Hazards
Current US Weather
3-Day Heat Index
3-Day Heat Index
High Temps Today
High Temps Today
High Temps Tomorrow
High Temps Tomorrow
Day 3 Minimum Temperature
Day 3 Minimum Temperature
Day 4 Minimum Temperature
Day 4 Minimum Temperature
Day 5 Minimum Temperature
Day 5 Minimum Temperature
Day 3 Maximum Temperature
Day 3 Maximum Temperature
Day 4 Maximum Temperature
Day 4 Maximum Temperature
Day 5 Maximum Temperature
Day 5 Maximum Temperature
Temperature
Temperature
Pressure
Pressure
Humidity
Humidity
Wind Chill / Heat Index
Wind Chill / Heat Index
Dewpoints
Dewpoints
Wind Speed
Wind Speed
US Snow Forecasts
Day 1 Snow Probability
Day 1 Snow Probability
Day 2 Snow Probability
Day 2 Snow Probability
Day 3 Snow Probability
Day 3 Snow Probability
Climate Forecasts
Drought Monitor
Drought Monitor
Monthly Drought Outlook
Monthly Drought Outlook
Seasonal Drought Outlook
Seasonal Drought Outlook
Future Temperature Outlooks
6-10 Day Outlook
6-10 Day Outlook
8-14 Day Outlook
8-14 Day Outlook
One Month Outlook
One Month Outlook
Three Month Outlook
Three Month Outlook
Future Precipitation Outlooks
6-10 Day Outlook
6-10 Day Outlook
8-14 Day Outlook
8-14 Day Outlook
One Month Outlook
One Month Outlook
Three Month Outlook
Three Month Outlook
Day 1 Rainfall Amounts
Day 1 Rainfall Amounts
Day 2 Rainfall Amounts
Day 2 Rainfall Amounts
Day 3 Rainfall Amounts
Day 3 Rainfall Amounts
Day 1-3 Rainfall Totals
Day 1-3 Rainfall Totals
5 Day Rainfall Amounts
5 Day Rainfall Amounts
7 Day Total Precipitation
7 Day Total Precipitation
Day 1 Excessive Rainfall
Day 1 Excessive Rainfall
Day 2 Excessive Rainfall
Day 2 Excessive Rainfall
Day 3 Excessive Rainfall
Day 3 Excessive Rainfall
Significant River Flood Outlook
Significant River Flood Outlook
 
Data sources: mesonet.org, hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu, web.uwm.edu, tropic.ssec.wisc.edu, noaa.gov (National Hurricane Center, Ocean Prediction Center, Climate Prediction Center, Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center), weather.gov