|
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
200 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1815 UTC Sat May 30 2026Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC
.SPECIAL FEATURES Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the watersbetween northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight into Sunday. A tight pressure gradient will support gale force winds on either side of the cold front Sun afternoon, south and southeast of Bermuda generally N of 29N between 55W and 65W. Strong to near- gale force winds, rough to very rough seas, and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected mainly along and ahead ofthe front, north of 26N. Conditions will improve Mon as the frontweakens and high pressure builds in its wake.Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecastissued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml andhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details .TROPICAL WAVES An east Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 17W, south of 16N. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 10W and 21W.A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 61W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 13N between 57W and 62W.A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 75W, south of 16N,moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are seen near thewave axis. MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast ofGuinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 06N22W. The ITCZ extends from 06N22W to 04N51W. Scattered moderateconvection is seen along and within 200 nm of the monsoon troughand ITCZ from 22W westward .GULF OF AMERICA Divergence aloft associated with a sharp upper level trough overthe western Gulf and a broad surface trough over the central to SW Gulf combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over a the eastern half of the basin. At the surface, a weak pressure gradient results in moderate or lighter winds and slight seas. However, stronger winds and higher seas can occur within stronger thunderstorms.For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into the Gulf region. This system will sustain gentle to moderate E to SE winds through midweek. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan and in the central Gulf through the same period. A pronounced deep-layered upper-level trough across the western Gulf combined with a very warm, humid and unstable airmass will continue to support rounds of showers and thunderstorms, across the central and eastern Gulf through at least Sun. Frequent lightning, with gusty winds and locally rough seas are expected in strong thunderstorms. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. CARIBBEAN SEA A few showers and thunderstorms are active over the far southwestCaribbean near the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoontrough. In the NW Caribbean, scattered moderate to strongconvection is developing along a surface trough analyzed from theGulf of Honduras along the coasts of Belize and the easternYucatan Peninsula. No other significant convection is observed atthis time. A strong Atlantic ridge extends southwestward into the Caribbean, supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds andseas of 6-8 ft in the south-central Caribbean, confirmed by scatterometer and altimeter data from this morning. Moderate to fresh breezes and moderate seas are found in the rest of the basinaway from the lee of Cuba, where light to gentle winds and slightto moderate seas prevail.For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across mostof the basin through the early part of the next week, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean. Looking ahead, the area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas will expand across the central Caribbean Tue and Wed as the ridge builds north of the area . ATLANTIC OCEAN A stationary front extends along 30-31N from near 58W to a 1012 mblow near 31N78W, with a dissipating stationary front between thelow and the GA coast. A surface trough extends from the low to thenorthern Bahamas, and is supporting scattered moderate convectionalong and east of the trough. SW winds ahead of the front,generally N of 27N between 55W and 63W are increasing to fresh tostrong speeds while seas build to 7-9 ft. Ridging prevails acrossmuch of the remaining Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE winds and 6-9ft seas prevail N of 14N and E of 25W, confirmed by scatterometerdata from this morning. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seasprevail across much of the Atlantic W of 25W and S of 22N. Theremainder of the basin away from any fronts or other features isseeing gentle to moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderateseas.For the forecast west of 55W, a few thunderstorms are active neara 1012 mb low pressure area located off northeast Florida. The low is along a stationary front extending from 31N58W to the low center. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow the low pressure as it moves eastward through tonight ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving into the area. The combined fronts will shift eastward, reaching from Bermuda to the northern Bahamasby early Sun. Expect strong winds and rough to very rough seas along and ahead of the front north of 25N Sun, with gale-force winds south of Bermuda near 30N63W by Sun afternoon. The front will weaken and stall from 31N57W to 27N65W by early Mon. Winds and seas diminish west of the front as high pressure builds between northeast Florida and Bermuda. Looking ahead, a second lowpressure area and accompanying front may move off northeast Florida by late Mon and shift eastward toward Bermuda through mid week, accompanied by fresh to strong winds and rough seas over thewaters north of 27N. |
Mesoscale Discussion 0909 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026 Areas affected... Central Kansas Concerning... Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253... Valid 302158Z - 310000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253 continues. SUMMARY... The severe threat will likely increase across central Kansas over the next few hours as thunderstorms migrate into a corridor of extreme buoyancy.
Mesoscale Discussion 0908 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026 Areas affected... Parts of western/central NE into extreme northwest KS Concerning... Severe potential... Watch likely Valid 302051Z - 302245Z Probability of Watch Issuance... 80 percent SUMMARY... Isolated supercell development is possible from late afternoon into early evening, before more widespread storms develop this evening.
Mesoscale Discussion 0907 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026 Areas affected... Parts of the eastern TX Panhandle... southwest OK... and the Rolling Plains Concerning... Severe potential... Watch possible Valid 302047Z - 302245Z Probability of Watch Issuance... 40 percent SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and locally severe wind gusts are possible with any storms that develop this afternoon.
Mesoscale Discussion 0906 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026 Areas affected... Parts of eastern MT... northeast WY... southwest ND... northwest SD Concerning... Severe potential... Watch unlikely Valid 302021Z - 302245Z Probability of Watch Issuance... 20 percent SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible through late afternoon.
