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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
800 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1215 UTC Sat May 16 2026Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC
.TROPICAL WAVES An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W, from 12N southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Convection previouslyassociated with this wave has waned overnight. An Atlantic tropical wave is crossing the Windward Islands thismorning along 62W, from 13N southward into Venezuela, movingwestward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is mainlyinland over Venezuela. MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W, then curves southwestward to 01N30W. The ITCZ is noted from 01N40W to 01N47W.Scattered moderate to strong convection is present along and S ofthe monsoon trough E of 24W. GULF OF AMERICA Ridging anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure centered just offshorethe Carolinas is dominating the basin, with weak diurnal troughsalong the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and in the Bay ofCampeche. Fresh SE winds are E of the trough in the Bay ofCampeche, and also in the NW Gulf within 90 nm of the coast.Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 2 to 5 ft in the western basin, and 2 ft or less in the east. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate into the middle of next week. With the high pressure centered NE of the region and lower pressure over Texas, the pressure gradient will support fresh SE winds over the western Gulf through early next week. Evening pulses of strong winds are expected to move offshore the Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. CARIBBEAN SEA A tight pressure gradient between a broad surface ridge orientedalong 31N and a 1008 mb low over far northern Colombia is sustaining strong NE to E winds and 8 to 11 ft seas in the central basin. Mainly fresh winds with 5 to 7 ft seas prevailelsewhere in the Caribbean, except for gentle to moderate E windswith slight seas in the NW basin. Scattered moderate convectionhas developed within 90 nm of the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica,and Nicaragua due to converging low-level winds and the influenceof the East Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian Low will support strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras into Tue, with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the forecastwaters. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters into Mon night, then begin to subside. ATLANTIC OCEAN A weak surface trough extends from near 31N62W to the centralBahamas. Scattered moderate to strong convection has increased incoverage overnight in association with this trough in the vicinityof the central Bahamas. N of 30N between 52W and 62W, moderate SWwinds are ahead of the trough. Otherwise, much of the basin is dominated by a 1031 mb Azores high. This is leading to widespreadmoderate to fresh easterly winds, with moderate seas. S of 21N,rough seas in a mix of wind waves and easterly swell prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the trough will dissipate today, leaving tranquil marine conditions in place into the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh east winds and mainly moderate seas will prevail. |
