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MIKE DELEONARDIS WEATHER

 
 
Hurricane Epsilon
AS OF 11:00 PM AST SAT OCT 24
(WINDS: 75 MPH | MOVING NE AT 24 MPH | PRESSURE: 960 MB)
EPSILON GROWS EVEN LARGER AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD... HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
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Hurricane Epsilon Dirty Longwave<br/>Infrared
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Hurricane Epsilon Daytime<br/>Infrared Night
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Hurricane Epsilon 5 Day<br/>Forecast
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Hurricane Epsilon Surface<br/>Wind Field
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Hurricane Epsilon Earliest Wind<br/>Arrivals
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast<br/>Wind Intensity
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Hurricane Epsilon Computer<br/>Models
Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities
Hurricane Epsilon Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities
Hurricane
Wind Probabilities
Hurricane Epsilon Hurricane<br/>Wind Probabilities
 
 
Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight
AS OF 11:00 PM EDT SAT OCT 24
(WINDS: 35 MPH | MOVING STATIONARY | PRESSURE: 1004 MB)
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
∘ Pinar del Rio Cuba
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
∘ Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
∘ Cozumel
Dirty Longwave
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Dirty Longwave<br/>Infrared
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Daytime<br/>Infrared Night
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight 5 Day<br/>Forecast
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Excessive<br/>Rainfall
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight 72-hour Rainfall Amounts
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Surface<br/>Wind Field
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Earliest Wind<br/>Arrivals
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Forecast<br/>Wind Intensity
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Key<br/>Messages
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Computer<br/>Models
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Hurricane<br/>Wind Probabilities
 
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather Discussion

Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Oct 25 2020 Corrected Special Feature section Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES

Large Hurricane Epsilon is centered near 39.4N 58.2W at 24/2100 UTC or 530 nm NE of Bermuda or about 490 nm south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland moving NE or 50 degrees at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows a comma shape cloud pattern surrounding the cloud system center of Epsilon. It consist of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant and of scattered moderate convection within 30 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. The remainder of the comma shape cloud pattern consists of areas of rain with embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 39N to 42N between 55W-58W and from 37N to 39N between 56W-58W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 35N to 37N between 57W-62W. Hurricane Epsilon is forecast to continue a fast northeastward to east- northeastward motion is forecast to occur Sun evening and into early next week. Large swell generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. This swell is likely to result in life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Epsilon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Recently formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight is centered near 18.7N 83.0W at 24/2100 UTC or about 220 nm south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba or 240 nm east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico moving north-northwest at 2 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows a more symmetrical shape to the overall cloud pattern of the depression compared to yesterday. Deep convection of the moderate to strong type intensity is increasing over the center, and to within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant and 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection, mostly in small clusters, is noted from 15N to 17N between 82W-87W. Similar convection is within 30 nm of a line from 13N81W to 16N79W to 19N79W to 21N79W and from 21N to 22N between 76W-79W including most of eastern Cuba. Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight is forecast to continue on its current motion through early Sun, strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.5N 83.5W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, then turn toward the west-northwest with a faster forward speed by Mon. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is anticipated to remain south of Cuba tomorrow and approach the Yucatan Channel or Yucatan Peninsula late Mon before emerging into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tue. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

TROPICAL WAVES

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 32W/33W from 02N to 14N, moving westward at about 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm east of the wave axis from 07N-09N and within 60 nm west of the wave axis from 09N-10N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W/56W south of 14N, moving westward at about 15 kt. This wave is just to the east of a sharp upper-level trough axis. This is providing for instability that is helping to enhance scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 60 nm west of the wave axis from 08N to 12N and within 60 nm east of the wave axis from 08N to 10N. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of 13N57W and within 30 nm of 11N54W. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 69W south of 19N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are confined to 60 nm east of the wave axis from 13N to 15N.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis extends from coast of Africa in Guinea- Bissau near 10N14W to 07N18W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ axis to just east of the 32W/33W tropical wave near 07N31W and briefly pauses. It resumes west of the same tropical wave near 07N34W and continues southwestward from there to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 25W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 30-60 nm north of the ITCZ between 35W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO

Please see Special Features section above for details on recently formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight in the western Caribbean Sea. A mid-level shortwave trough is evident over the eastern Gulf. This feature is driving a surface cold front that as 21Z extends from near For Walton Beach, Florida to 26N91W and to inland Mexico at 23N98W. A pre-frontal trough extends from near Apalachicola to 27N86W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with frequent lightning, are within 150 nm east of the surface trough north of 28N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the rest of the eastern Gulf south of 28N. High pressure is building southeast over the western Gulf behind the cold front. Latest scatterometer data indicates generally moderate north to northeast winds behind the cold front and gentle to moderate east-southeast winds ahead of the cold front and pre-frontal trough, with the exception of fresh to strong south-southwest winds associated with the shower and thunderstorm activity that is occurring to the east of the surface trough. Recently formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight in the western Caribbean Sea will to 19.0N 83.2W Sun morning, strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.5N 83.5W Sun afternoon, 20.1N 84.2W Mon morning, 20.9N 85.6W Mon afternoon, 22.0N 87.5W Tue morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 23.4N 89.4W Tue afternoon. Twenty- Eight will weaken to a tropical storm near 27.5N 91.0W by Wed afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Please see the Special Features section above for details on recently formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight in the western Caribbean Sea. The eastern segment of the Pacific monsoon trough extends into the southwestern Caribbean from northern Panama near 09N81W to 12N76W. This features is enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 09-13N between 77W-82W and from 11N to 17N between 72W-78W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere west of 69W. Recently formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight near 18.7N 83.0W 1005 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NNW at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35 kt. Twenty-Eight will move to 19.0N 83.2W Sun morning, strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.5N 83.5W Sun afternoon, 20.1N 84.2W Mon morning, 20.9N 85.6W Mon afternoon, 22.0N 87.5W Tue morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 23.4N 89.4W Tue afternoon. Twenty-Eight will weaken to a tropical storm near 27.5N 91.0W by Wed afternoon. Winds and seas will continue to increase east of the Windward Islands and in the E Caribbean through early next week between this system and higher pressure over the Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Epsilon. A surface trough is analyzed from near 27N74W to across the central Bahamas. A mid-level shortwave trough is noted just to the northwest of it. These feature are producing scattered showers and thunderstorms south of 27N and west of 73W, including the eastern part of the Straits of Florida. Other scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 22N to 27N between 64W-73W. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds along with heavy rainfall and reduced visibilities. A 1029 mb high is over the eastern Atlantic near 34N33W. A 1026 mb high is over the far eastern Atlantic near 35N12W. Long-period northeast swell generated from Hurricane Epsilon, now well north of the area, will continue to impact the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas into Sun. What was an area of low pressure in the western Caribbean Seais now Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight near 18.7N 83.0W, 1005 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NNW at 2 kt. It will move into the southeast Gulf of Mexico through next week. Heavy rain and gusty winds from this system may impact South Florida and the northwest Bahamas into early next week.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Epsilon, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, and on newly formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight, located over the northwest Caribbean Sea.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Weather Outlook
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Epsilon, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, and on newly formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight, located over the northwest Caribbean Sea.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

Tropical Weather Discussion

Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Oct 25 2020 Corrected Special Feature section Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES

Large Hurricane Epsilon is centered near 39.4N 58.2W at 24/2100 UTC or 530 nm NE of Bermuda or about 490 nm south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland moving NE or 50 degrees at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows a comma shape cloud pattern surrounding the cloud system center of Epsilon. It consist of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant and of scattered moderate convection within 30 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. The remainder of the comma shape cloud pattern consists of areas of rain with embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 39N to 42N between 55W-58W and from 37N to 39N between 56W-58W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 35N to 37N between 57W-62W. Hurricane Epsilon is forecast to continue a fast northeastward to east- northeastward motion is forecast to occur Sun evening and into early next week. Large swell generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. This swell is likely to result in life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Epsilon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Recently formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight is centered near 18.7N 83.0W at 24/2100 UTC or about 220 nm south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba or 240 nm east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico moving north-northwest at 2 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows a more symmetrical shape to the overall cloud pattern of the depression compared to yesterday. Deep convection of the moderate to strong type intensity is increasing over the center, and to within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant and 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection, mostly in small clusters, is noted from 15N to 17N between 82W-87W. Similar convection is within 30 nm of a line from 13N81W to 16N79W to 19N79W to 21N79W and from 21N to 22N between 76W-79W including most of eastern Cuba. Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight is forecast to continue on its current motion through early Sun, strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.5N 83.5W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, then turn toward the west-northwest with a faster forward speed by Mon. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is anticipated to remain south of Cuba tomorrow and approach the Yucatan Channel or Yucatan Peninsula late Mon before emerging into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tue. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

TROPICAL WAVES

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 32W/33W from 02N to 14N, moving westward at about 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm east of the wave axis from 07N-09N and within 60 nm west of the wave axis from 09N-10N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W/56W south of 14N, moving westward at about 15 kt. This wave is just to the east of a sharp upper-level trough axis. This is providing for instability that is helping to enhance scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 60 nm west of the wave axis from 08N to 12N and within 60 nm east of the wave axis from 08N to 10N. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of 13N57W and within 30 nm of 11N54W. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 69W south of 19N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are confined to 60 nm east of the wave axis from 13N to 15N.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis extends from coast of Africa in Guinea- Bissau near 10N14W to 07N18W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ axis to just east of the 32W/33W tropical wave near 07N31W and briefly pauses. It resumes west of the same tropical wave near 07N34W and continues southwestward from there to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 25W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 30-60 nm north of the ITCZ between 35W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO

Please see Special Features section above for details on recently formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight in the western Caribbean Sea. A mid-level shortwave trough is evident over the eastern Gulf. This feature is driving a surface cold front that as 21Z extends from near For Walton Beach, Florida to 26N91W and to inland Mexico at 23N98W. A pre-frontal trough extends from near Apalachicola to 27N86W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with frequent lightning, are within 150 nm east of the surface trough north of 28N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the rest of the eastern Gulf south of 28N. High pressure is building southeast over the western Gulf behind the cold front. Latest scatterometer data indicates generally moderate north to northeast winds behind the cold front and gentle to moderate east-southeast winds ahead of the cold front and pre-frontal trough, with the exception of fresh to strong south-southwest winds associated with the shower and thunderstorm activity that is occurring to the east of the surface trough. Recently formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight in the western Caribbean Sea will to 19.0N 83.2W Sun morning, strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.5N 83.5W Sun afternoon, 20.1N 84.2W Mon morning, 20.9N 85.6W Mon afternoon, 22.0N 87.5W Tue morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 23.4N 89.4W Tue afternoon. Twenty- Eight will weaken to a tropical storm near 27.5N 91.0W by Wed afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Please see the Special Features section above for details on recently formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight in the western Caribbean Sea. The eastern segment of the Pacific monsoon trough extends into the southwestern Caribbean from northern Panama near 09N81W to 12N76W. This features is enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 09-13N between 77W-82W and from 11N to 17N between 72W-78W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere west of 69W. Recently formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight near 18.7N 83.0W 1005 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NNW at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35 kt. Twenty-Eight will move to 19.0N 83.2W Sun morning, strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.5N 83.5W Sun afternoon, 20.1N 84.2W Mon morning, 20.9N 85.6W Mon afternoon, 22.0N 87.5W Tue morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 23.4N 89.4W Tue afternoon. Twenty-Eight will weaken to a tropical storm near 27.5N 91.0W by Wed afternoon. Winds and seas will continue to increase east of the Windward Islands and in the E Caribbean through early next week between this system and higher pressure over the Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Epsilon. A surface trough is analyzed from near 27N74W to across the central Bahamas. A mid-level shortwave trough is noted just to the northwest of it. These feature are producing scattered showers and thunderstorms south of 27N and west of 73W, including the eastern part of the Straits of Florida. Other scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 22N to 27N between 64W-73W. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds along with heavy rainfall and reduced visibilities. A 1029 mb high is over the eastern Atlantic near 34N33W. A 1026 mb high is over the far eastern Atlantic near 35N12W. Long-period northeast swell generated from Hurricane Epsilon, now well north of the area, will continue to impact the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas into Sun. What was an area of low pressure in the western Caribbean Seais now Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight near 18.7N 83.0W, 1005 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NNW at 2 kt. It will move into the southeast Gulf of Mexico through next week. Heavy rain and gusty winds from this system may impact South Florida and the northwest Bahamas into early next week.

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Ocean Heat Content
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NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.
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Data sources: mesonet.org, hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu, web.uwm.edu, tropic.ssec.wisc.edu, noaa.gov (National Hurricane Center, Ocean Prediction Center, Climate Prediction Center, Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center), weather.gov