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MIKE DELEONARDIS WEATHER

 
 
Tropical Depression Eleven
AS OF 5:00 PM AST WED SEP 28
(WINDS: 35 MPH | MOVING NNW AT 10 MPH | PRESSURE: 1008 MB)
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
Dirty Longwave
Infrared
Tropical Depression Eleven Dirty Longwave<br/>Infrared
Daytime
Infrared Night
Tropical Depression Eleven Daytime<br/>Infrared Night
5 Day
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Tropical Depression Eleven 5 Day<br/>Forecast
Surface
Wind Field
Tropical Depression Eleven Surface<br/>Wind Field
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Tropical Depression Eleven Earliest Wind<br/>Arrivals
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Wind Intensity
Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast<br/>Wind Intensity
Computer
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Tropical Depression Eleven Computer<br/>Models
Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities
Tropical Depression Eleven Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities
Hurricane
Wind Probabilities
Tropical Depression Eleven Hurricane<br/>Wind Probabilities
 
 
Hurricane Ian
AS OF 7:00 PM EDT WED SEP 28
(WINDS: 125 MPH | MOVING NNE AT 8 MPH | PRESSURE: 955 MB)
7 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE... IAN BATTERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for:
∘ Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
∘ Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for:
∘ Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
∘ Tampa Bay
∘ Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River
∘ St. Johns River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
∘ Indian Pass to the Anclote River
∘ Flamingo to Sebastian Inlet
∘ Flagler/Volusia County Line to Surf City
∘ Flamingo to Chokoloskee
∘ Lake Okeechobee
∘ Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for:
∘ North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet
∘ Florida Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:
∘ Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River
∘ Lake Okeechobee
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
∘ North of Surf City to Cape Lookout
Dirty Longwave
Infrared
Hurricane Ian Dirty Longwave<br/>Infrared
Daytime
Infrared Night
Hurricane Ian Daytime<br/>Infrared Night
5 Day
Forecast
Hurricane Ian 5 Day<br/>Forecast
Excessive
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Hurricane Ian Excessive<br/>Rainfall
72-hour Rainfall Amounts
Hurricane Ian 72-hour Rainfall Amounts
Surface
Wind Field
Hurricane Ian Surface<br/>Wind Field
Earliest Wind
Arrivals
Hurricane Ian Earliest Wind<br/>Arrivals
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Wind Intensity
Hurricane Ian Forecast<br/>Wind Intensity
Key
Messages
Hurricane Ian Key<br/>Messages
Computer
Models
Hurricane Ian Computer<br/>Models
Peak Surge
Forecast
Hurricane Ian Peak Surge<br/>Forecast
Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities
Hurricane Ian Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities
Hurricane
Wind Probabilities
Hurricane Ian Hurricane<br/>Wind Probabilities
 
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Sep 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES

Hurricane Ian is centered near 26.4N 82.4W at 28/1700 UTC or 30 nm WSW of Ft. Myers, FL. Ian is moving NNE at 8 kt. Minimum central pressure is 937 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. Ian is a strong category 4 hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend out 40 nm from the center. Tropical storm force winds extend out 120 nm NE quadrant, 140 nm SE quadrant, 100 nm SW quadrant and 150 nm NW quadrant. Seas of 12 ft or greater extend outward 45 nm in the NE quadrant, 120 nm SE quadrant, 300 nm SW quadrant and 240 nm NW quadrant. Peak seas are 30 ft. Numerous strong convection extends outward 90 nm from the center in the N semicircle and 120 nm S semicircle. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted elsewhere within 390 nm NE quadrant, 330 nm SE quadrant and 150 nm W semicircle. The well-defined eye is 25 nm in diameter on NWS Doppler radar, and 30 nm in diameter on GOES-16 infrared satellite imagery. Ian is expected to cause a catastrophic storm surge, winds and flooding over portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. The eyewall is moving onshore now in the area of Sanibel Island, Captiva, Cape Coral, and Boca Grande. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Depression Eleven has formed near 16.1N 34.4W at 28/1500 UTC, or 600 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving N at 8 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 10 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 180 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. A north to north-northwest motion is forecast over the next several days until the system dissipates. Some slight strengthening is possible today, and the depression could become a short-lived tropical storm. However, weakening is expected by the end of this week, with the system dissipating by Saturday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

TROPICAL WAVES

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis extends from 21N24W through the Cabo Verde Islands to 09N25W, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm either side of the wave axis from 11N to 16N.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through northern Mauritania from 16N17W to 09N25W to 08N30W. The monsoon trough continues from 11N40W 10N47W. The ITCZ extends from 10N47W to 12N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-10N between 10W-19W, from 01N-07N between 19W-40W, and from 09N-14N between 53.5W-61W.

GULF OF MEXICO

Although the winds and squalls directly related to Hurricane Ian are confined to areas east of about 85.5W longitude, strong to near gale force N to NE winds extend across the northern Gulf as far west as 94W due to a strong pressure gradient between Ian and an area of high pressure over east Texas. Significant wave heights as far west as NOAA buoy 42501 near 26.0N 89.6W are 11 ft as of 28/1600 UTC. Seas of 11 to 16 ft cover most of the Gulf between 86W and 90W. Seas of 8 ft or greater cover the Gulf of Mexico east of 94.5W and north of 22N. Over the southwestern Gulf, fresh N winds prevail along with seas of 5-8 ft. Isolated showers and tstorms are noted in the Bay of Campeche. Major Hurricane Ian will move inland over southwest Florida to 27.3N 82.1W this evening, then weaken to a tropical storm near 28.3N 81.4W Thu morning. Ian will move off northeast Florida into the Atlantic Thu evening to near 29.3N 80.8W then continue to move north of the area into the Carolinas. Winds and seas will gradually diminish across the northeast Gulf Thu night through Fri night, with light breezes and slight seas persisting across the basin thereafter. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may enter the northeast Gulf late Sat or Sun, then stall and dissipate.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Large seas are still occurring across the Yucatan Channel due to large northerly swell from Major Hurricane Ian, which is about to make landfall along the west coast of Florida. Recent ASCAT data indicates fresh to strong N winds are still occurring in the Yucatan Channel. Scattered moderate convection associated with Ian is still occurring over western and central Cuba, but has ended for the Caribbean Sea. An upper-level low centered northeast of the basin near 22N62W extends an upper-level trough southwestward to the northeastern Caribbean. As a result, upper-level divergence over the southeastern Caribbean is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection from 10N-15N between 61W-71W. Similar convection is noted in the SW Caribbean in association with the east Pacific monsoon trough, mainly south of 15N and west of 75.5W. Recent ASCAT data shows gentle to moderate E winds over the eastern and central Caribbean. Gentle W winds are in the NW Caribbean, becoming fresh northerly in the Yucatan Channel. South of 20N and east of 80W, seas are 2-4 ft across the basin. Seas are 3-6 ft in the NW Caribbean, except 7-11 ft in the Yucatan Channel. Major Hurricane Ian is north of the area, making landfall on the west coast of Florida now. Large N swell associated with Ian will persist in the Yucatan Channel through Fri night. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A stationary front extends from 31N78.5W to St. Augustine, FL. Near-gale force NE winds are located north of the stationary front, along the coast of Georgia and Jacksonville, FL. Major Hurricane Ian is making landfall now on the west coast of Florida. The combination of the front and outer squalls from Ian is producing scattered moderate to strong convection, extending from Florida eastward to a line extending from 31N72W to 24N76W. Winds of 20 to 33 kt associated with the circulation of Ian are now starting to emerge over the Atlantic to the east of Florida, and seas are building. An upper-level low centered near 22N62W is producing scattered moderate convection from 19N-25N between 57W-65W. Another upper- level low centered near 31N37W is inducing scattered moderate convection north of 25.5N between 31.5W and 43W. Fresh NE to E winds cover much of the area north of 25N and east of 40W. Seas are 6 to 10 ft in this area. Elsewhere across the basin, mostly moderate winds and 5-6 ft seas prevail. Major Hurricane Ian will move onshore over southwest Florida this afternoon, reach inland to 27.3N 82.1W this evening, then weaken to a tropical storm over central Florida near 28.3N 81.4W Thu morning. Ian will then enter the Atlantic off northeast Florida, reaching 29.3N 80.8W Thu evening, and 30.8N 80.6W Fri morning. Ian will continue to move north of the area into the Carolinas through Fri night. Elsewhere moderate to fresh E to SE winds will persist. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the region Sat into Sun.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Ian, located inland over southwestern Florida and on Tropical Depression Eleven, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Weather Outlook
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Ian, located inland over southwestern Florida and on Tropical Depression Eleven, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Sep 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES

Hurricane Ian is centered near 26.4N 82.4W at 28/1700 UTC or 30 nm WSW of Ft. Myers, FL. Ian is moving NNE at 8 kt. Minimum central pressure is 937 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. Ian is a strong category 4 hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend out 40 nm from the center. Tropical storm force winds extend out 120 nm NE quadrant, 140 nm SE quadrant, 100 nm SW quadrant and 150 nm NW quadrant. Seas of 12 ft or greater extend outward 45 nm in the NE quadrant, 120 nm SE quadrant, 300 nm SW quadrant and 240 nm NW quadrant. Peak seas are 30 ft. Numerous strong convection extends outward 90 nm from the center in the N semicircle and 120 nm S semicircle. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted elsewhere within 390 nm NE quadrant, 330 nm SE quadrant and 150 nm W semicircle. The well-defined eye is 25 nm in diameter on NWS Doppler radar, and 30 nm in diameter on GOES-16 infrared satellite imagery. Ian is expected to cause a catastrophic storm surge, winds and flooding over portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. The eyewall is moving onshore now in the area of Sanibel Island, Captiva, Cape Coral, and Boca Grande. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Depression Eleven has formed near 16.1N 34.4W at 28/1500 UTC, or 600 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving N at 8 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 10 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 180 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. A north to north-northwest motion is forecast over the next several days until the system dissipates. Some slight strengthening is possible today, and the depression could become a short-lived tropical storm. However, weakening is expected by the end of this week, with the system dissipating by Saturday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

TROPICAL WAVES

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis extends from 21N24W through the Cabo Verde Islands to 09N25W, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm either side of the wave axis from 11N to 16N.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through northern Mauritania from 16N17W to 09N25W to 08N30W. The monsoon trough continues from 11N40W 10N47W. The ITCZ extends from 10N47W to 12N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-10N between 10W-19W, from 01N-07N between 19W-40W, and from 09N-14N between 53.5W-61W.

GULF OF MEXICO

Although the winds and squalls directly related to Hurricane Ian are confined to areas east of about 85.5W longitude, strong to near gale force N to NE winds extend across the northern Gulf as far west as 94W due to a strong pressure gradient between Ian and an area of high pressure over east Texas. Significant wave heights as far west as NOAA buoy 42501 near 26.0N 89.6W are 11 ft as of 28/1600 UTC. Seas of 11 to 16 ft cover most of the Gulf between 86W and 90W. Seas of 8 ft or greater cover the Gulf of Mexico east of 94.5W and north of 22N. Over the southwestern Gulf, fresh N winds prevail along with seas of 5-8 ft. Isolated showers and tstorms are noted in the Bay of Campeche. Major Hurricane Ian will move inland over southwest Florida to 27.3N 82.1W this evening, then weaken to a tropical storm near 28.3N 81.4W Thu morning. Ian will move off northeast Florida into the Atlantic Thu evening to near 29.3N 80.8W then continue to move north of the area into the Carolinas. Winds and seas will gradually diminish across the northeast Gulf Thu night through Fri night, with light breezes and slight seas persisting across the basin thereafter. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may enter the northeast Gulf late Sat or Sun, then stall and dissipate.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Large seas are still occurring across the Yucatan Channel due to large northerly swell from Major Hurricane Ian, which is about to make landfall along the west coast of Florida. Recent ASCAT data indicates fresh to strong N winds are still occurring in the Yucatan Channel. Scattered moderate convection associated with Ian is still occurring over western and central Cuba, but has ended for the Caribbean Sea. An upper-level low centered northeast of the basin near 22N62W extends an upper-level trough southwestward to the northeastern Caribbean. As a result, upper-level divergence over the southeastern Caribbean is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection from 10N-15N between 61W-71W. Similar convection is noted in the SW Caribbean in association with the east Pacific monsoon trough, mainly south of 15N and west of 75.5W. Recent ASCAT data shows gentle to moderate E winds over the eastern and central Caribbean. Gentle W winds are in the NW Caribbean, becoming fresh northerly in the Yucatan Channel. South of 20N and east of 80W, seas are 2-4 ft across the basin. Seas are 3-6 ft in the NW Caribbean, except 7-11 ft in the Yucatan Channel. Major Hurricane Ian is north of the area, making landfall on the west coast of Florida now. Large N swell associated with Ian will persist in the Yucatan Channel through Fri night. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A stationary front extends from 31N78.5W to St. Augustine, FL. Near-gale force NE winds are located north of the stationary front, along the coast of Georgia and Jacksonville, FL. Major Hurricane Ian is making landfall now on the west coast of Florida. The combination of the front and outer squalls from Ian is producing scattered moderate to strong convection, extending from Florida eastward to a line extending from 31N72W to 24N76W. Winds of 20 to 33 kt associated with the circulation of Ian are now starting to emerge over the Atlantic to the east of Florida, and seas are building. An upper-level low centered near 22N62W is producing scattered moderate convection from 19N-25N between 57W-65W. Another upper- level low centered near 31N37W is inducing scattered moderate convection north of 25.5N between 31.5W and 43W. Fresh NE to E winds cover much of the area north of 25N and east of 40W. Seas are 6 to 10 ft in this area. Elsewhere across the basin, mostly moderate winds and 5-6 ft seas prevail. Major Hurricane Ian will move onshore over southwest Florida this afternoon, reach inland to 27.3N 82.1W this evening, then weaken to a tropical storm over central Florida near 28.3N 81.4W Thu morning. Ian will then enter the Atlantic off northeast Florida, reaching 29.3N 80.8W Thu evening, and 30.8N 80.6W Fri morning. Ian will continue to move north of the area into the Carolinas through Fri night. Elsewhere moderate to fresh E to SE winds will persist. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the region Sat into Sun.

Tropical Formation Graphics
48 Hour Storm Probability
48 Hour Storm Probability
Atlantic Ocean Temperatures
Atlantic Ocean Temperatures
Gulf of Mexico Temperatures
Gulf of Mexico Temperatures
North Atlantic
North Atlantic
Ocean Heat Content
Ocean Heat Content
SST Anomalies
SST Anomalies

 
Current Tornado & Severe Thunderstorm Watches
Tornado Watch 547
WW 0547 Image
Tornado Watch Number 547
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
425 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
East central Florida
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning from
425 PM until 100 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible.
 
US Severe Weather Outlooks
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
Tornadoes are expected this afternoon/evening, especially across east central Florida, in association with Hurricane Ian.
Today's Outlook
Today's Weather Outlook
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Day 3 Outlook
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Tornado Threat
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Tomorrow's Tornado Threat
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Data sources: mesonet.org, hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu, web.uwm.edu, tropic.ssec.wisc.edu, noaa.gov (National Hurricane Center, Ocean Prediction Center, Climate Prediction Center, Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center), weather.gov