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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Nov 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES

Tropical Depression ETA continues to produce heavy rains and life-threatening flooding to sections of Central America. The center of Tropical Depression Eta, at 05/1500 UTC, is inland over Honduras near 15.1N 87.8W. Eta is moving toward the NW, or 305 degrees, at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails from Costa Rica to the Yucatan Peninsula and the western Caribbean waters mainly west of 77W. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move across northwestern Honduras through this afternoon, and emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by tonight. Eta is forecast to intensify and approach the Cayman Islands and western or central Cuba this weekend. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details. Rainfall may cause catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding are possible in Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and southeastern Mexico.

TROPICAL WAVES

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 44W from 02N- 16N, is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave mainly south of 10N. A central Atlantic tropical wave wit axis along 58W, from 14N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 16N17W to 13N22W. The ITCZ continues from 13N22W to 06N41W. Scattered showers prevail south of the boundaries between 10W-25W.

GULF OF MEXICO

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a high pressure centered over the west Atlantic. over the western Gulf, scatterometer data depicted a surface trough that extends from 29N94W to 22N94W. To the southeast, a shearline is analyzed from 24N80W to 22N87W. Fresh to strong easterly winds are noted across most of the basin south of 27N, while gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Strong high pressure will maintain fresh to strong NE winds in the southeastern half of the basin, through early Friday. The wind speeds will remain fresh to strong in the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the upcoming weekend. T.D. Eta will move inland to 15.7N 88.0W this evening, 16.8N 87.6W Fri morning, 17.8N 86.2W Fri evening, strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.0N 84.5W Sat morning, 20.1N 83.0W Sat evening, and 21.3N 81.2W Sun morning. Eta will change little in intensity as it moves to near 23.0N 80.0W early Mon. High pressure extending into the region from the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong NE winds over the eastern half of the basin through Sun. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Straits of Florida Sun night and Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Please refer to the section above for details on T.D Eta. Over the remainder of the basin, scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades. A surface trough extends across west Hispaniola with scattered showers. Tropical Depression Eta will move inland to 15.7N 88.0W this evening, 16.8N 87.6W Fri morning, 17.8N 86.2W Fri evening, strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.0N 84.5W Sat morning, 20.1N 83.0W Sat evening, and 21.3N 81.2W Sun morning. Eta will change little in intensity as it moves to near 23.0N 80.0W early Mon. The center of Eta is expected to emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by tonight. Eta is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and western or central Cuba this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A shearline extends from 29N54W to 24N69W to 24N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the shearline mainly west of 60W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 29N50W to 24N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25N between 46W-52W. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. The center of the now T.D. Eta is expected to emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by tonight, and will re-intensify into a tropical cyclone on Fri in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are expected W of 70W this upcoming weekend. Tropical storm conditions are possible between Cuba and the Bahamas Sun night and Mon. Large seas are expected in the western Atlantic Sat through Mon. The shearline will dissipate within the next 24 hours. A cold front will enter the central Atlantic enhancing seas.
Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Weather Outlook
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Nov 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES

Tropical Depression ETA continues to produce heavy rains and life-threatening flooding to sections of Central America. The center of Tropical Depression Eta, at 05/1500 UTC, is inland over Honduras near 15.1N 87.8W. Eta is moving toward the NW, or 305 degrees, at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails from Costa Rica to the Yucatan Peninsula and the western Caribbean waters mainly west of 77W. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move across northwestern Honduras through this afternoon, and emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by tonight. Eta is forecast to intensify and approach the Cayman Islands and western or central Cuba this weekend. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details. Rainfall may cause catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding are possible in Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and southeastern Mexico.

TROPICAL WAVES

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 44W from 02N- 16N, is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave mainly south of 10N. A central Atlantic tropical wave wit axis along 58W, from 14N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 16N17W to 13N22W. The ITCZ continues from 13N22W to 06N41W. Scattered showers prevail south of the boundaries between 10W-25W.

GULF OF MEXICO

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a high pressure centered over the west Atlantic. over the western Gulf, scatterometer data depicted a surface trough that extends from 29N94W to 22N94W. To the southeast, a shearline is analyzed from 24N80W to 22N87W. Fresh to strong easterly winds are noted across most of the basin south of 27N, while gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Strong high pressure will maintain fresh to strong NE winds in the southeastern half of the basin, through early Friday. The wind speeds will remain fresh to strong in the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the upcoming weekend. T.D. Eta will move inland to 15.7N 88.0W this evening, 16.8N 87.6W Fri morning, 17.8N 86.2W Fri evening, strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.0N 84.5W Sat morning, 20.1N 83.0W Sat evening, and 21.3N 81.2W Sun morning. Eta will change little in intensity as it moves to near 23.0N 80.0W early Mon. High pressure extending into the region from the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong NE winds over the eastern half of the basin through Sun. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Straits of Florida Sun night and Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Please refer to the section above for details on T.D Eta. Over the remainder of the basin, scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades. A surface trough extends across west Hispaniola with scattered showers. Tropical Depression Eta will move inland to 15.7N 88.0W this evening, 16.8N 87.6W Fri morning, 17.8N 86.2W Fri evening, strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.0N 84.5W Sat morning, 20.1N 83.0W Sat evening, and 21.3N 81.2W Sun morning. Eta will change little in intensity as it moves to near 23.0N 80.0W early Mon. The center of Eta is expected to emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by tonight. Eta is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and western or central Cuba this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A shearline extends from 29N54W to 24N69W to 24N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the shearline mainly west of 60W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 29N50W to 24N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25N between 46W-52W. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. The center of the now T.D. Eta is expected to emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by tonight, and will re-intensify into a tropical cyclone on Fri in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are expected W of 70W this upcoming weekend. Tropical storm conditions are possible between Cuba and the Bahamas Sun night and Mon. Large seas are expected in the western Atlantic Sat through Mon. The shearline will dissipate within the next 24 hours. A cold front will enter the central Atlantic enhancing seas.

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NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are possible during the early morning Tuesday across a portion of central to east Texas.
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Data sources: mesonet.org, hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu, web.uwm.edu, tropic.ssec.wisc.edu, noaa.gov (National Hurricane Center, Ocean Prediction Center, Climate Prediction Center, Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center), weather.gov