|
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather Discussion
Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Dec 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. Updated information on Meteo-France Marine Zones SPECIAL FEATURES Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a strong 1044 mb high over the northeastern U.S. to near Bermuda. A surface trough curves northeastward from a 1008 mb low north of Puerto Rico to southeast of Bermuda near 30N60W. Tight gradient between these features is causing near-gale to gale-force NE winds near a weakening stationary front between Bermuda and the northwest Bahamas. These winds along with peak seas of 15 to 18 ft will persist through Saturday night. As the low slowly weakens Sunday and Sunday night, both winds and seas should gradually subside. However winds will stay at fresh to strong and seas will remain above 12 ft through Monday night. Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Tight gradient between a 1038 mb high north of the Azores and a 1008 mb west of the Canary Islands is generating strong to near- gale NE winds and 11 to 14 ft seas near 31N33W. This low is expect to steadily deepen while drifting northward Saturday through Sunday, allowing these winds to reach gale-force and expand southward to near 28N by Saturday evening. Seas will also peak at 15 to 19 ft by late Saturday night. As the low continues to move northward and pass north of 31N Sunday afternoon and night, marine conditions will improve. For both Gale Warnings above, please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurcn Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. Meteo-France Marine Zones Gale Warning: Meteo-France issued Gale Warnings for the marine zones of southeastern and northwestern IRVING, eastern METEOR, western MADEIRA, and western CANARIAS through 15/12Z. Please refer to the website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for details. MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ A monsoon trough remain mostly over the Africa Continent. An ITCZ extends westward from offshore of northern Liberia at 04N15W through 04N30W to 06N45W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near and up to 250 nm north of the ITCZ between 18W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO A broad surface ridge reaches southwestward from the southeastern U.S. across northern Florida to a 1018 mb high near Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are present at the southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Moderate E to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted at the central and western Bay of Campeche. Fresh with locally strong E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, strong high pressure over the southeastern United States will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds over most of the Gulf through Sat evening. However, fresh to strong winds will continue for the Florida Straits through Sun night. On Mon and Tue, conditions will be quiescent across the entire Gulf. Looking ahead, the next cold front should reach the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA The dissipating end of a stationary front reaches southwestward from the southeast Bahamas across central Cuba to the northwestern basin. Patchy showers are found near and north of this feature across the northwestern basin. A broad surface ridge offshore of eastern Florida is maintaining fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft across the northwestern, north-central and south-central basin. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft are mostly at the northwestern basin, Lee of Cuba, near Windward Passage/Jamaica. Mostly fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are visible at the Gulf of Honduras, and southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds with 2 t 4 ft seas. At the eastern basin, gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft prevail at the eastern basin. For the forecast, strong ridging over the SE United States will continue to force fresh to strong NE winds across the central and W Caribbean including through the Windward Passage until Sun night. A broad surface trough extending across the eastern Caribbean will gradually move westward over the next few days. This trough will cause the pressure gradient to relax across most of the Caribbean, and early next week the trades across the Caribbean should be only moderate or weaker. Looking ahead, a building ridge may enhance the trades over the central Caribbean starting on Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information regarding the two Gale Warnings. A weakening stationary front extends southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N66W to beyond the southeast Bahamas. Patchy showers are seen near and up to 250 nm, northwest of the stationary front. A surface trough curves northeastward from a 1008 mb low north of Puerto Rico at 22N65W to near 30N60W. Scattered showers are evident to the north of 26N between 56W and 64W. At the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends southwestward from a 1008 mb at 28N30W to 20N48W, then continues northwestward to near 24N61W. Scattered moderate convection is found up to 70 nm north and 150 nm south of the stationary front. Similar conditions are occurring near the low north of 23N between 23W and 33W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Other than the areas mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh to strong NE to ESE winds and 8 to 12 ft dominate north of 20N between 35W and the Georgia/Florida cost. For the Tropical Atlantic from 04 to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh and 4 to 6 ft are evident. For the rest of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle with locally moderate SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast, the stationary front should dissipate tonight. A 1009 mb low near 21N65W sits along a north-south oriented trough. As the low/trough shifts westward, a large area of strong to near gale NE winds and very rough seas will set up over all of the waters west of 65W during the weekend. As the pressure gradient tightens between the low/trough and high pressure over the US mid- Atlantic waters, peak winds should reach gale force later tonight through Sat night between the waters of the Bahamas and Bermuda. During Sun and Mon, conditions will gradually improve, and by Tue and Wed winds will be reduced to moderate to fresh across the entire area. |
