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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL0015 UTC Mon Aug 17 2026Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC
.TROPICAL WAVES An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is noted along 35W from 06N to20N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Convection associated with thiswave has diminished this evening. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W from 06N to 22N,moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is notedfrom 12N to 14N between 50W and 55W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W from Hispaniola toColombia, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 68W and 77W. MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W, and extends southwestward to 13N25W to 12N35W. The ITCZ begins near 12N40W and continues to 13N45W to 12N50W. Another segment of the ITCZ isnoted from 11N55W to 09N60W. No significant convection is evidentaside from the convection discussed in the Tropical Waves sectionabove .GULF OF AMERICA A ridge extends across the northern Gulf anchored by a 1021 mb high pressure center just offshore Louisiana. Scattered moderateconvection is present in the west-central Gulf in association witha surface trough that extends roughly 120 nm offshore fromTampico, Mexico, to Frontera, Mexico. A diurnal increase of NEwinds to moderate to fresh speeds is occurring in the eastern Bayof Campeche, otherwise winds are light to gentle. Seas are mainly1 to 3 ft, with localized 4 ft seas near the Yucatan Channel andin the Florida Straits. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the week. A weak pressure gradient will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to occasionally strong winds N of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan atnight as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderateseas are expected through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA See Tropical Waves section above for details on Central Caribbeanconvection because caused by a tropical wave. In the NW basin, scattered moderate convection is noted between Cuba and Jamaica, and northward from the Gulf of Honduras to just offshore the Yucatan Peninsula. The pressure gradient between low pressure tothe south and the Atlantic ridge centered east of the Bahamas is supporting strong E winds and 10-12 ft seas over the central Caribbean, and fresh NE to E winds and 7-9 ft seas across most ofthe rest of the basin. Moderate NE winds and 3-5 ft seas elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean north and west of theCayman Islands.For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds overthe central Caribbean though Mon. A tropical wave in the central Caribbean is accompanied by active convection which will create locally higher winds and seas. The wave will continue westward across the western Caribbean early this week. ATLANTIC OCEAN A pre-frontal trough has moved S of 31N and extends this eveningfrom 31N59W to 27N64W. Scattered moderate convection associated with this trough and the parent cold front are impacting waters N of 27N between 52W and 72W. Otherwise, the Bermuda-Azores high, anchored by a 1022 mb high center N of the Bahamas dominates. Ahead of the aforementioned trough, fresh SW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas extend E to 50W. Otherwise, moderate seas and moderate or weaker winds dominate the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a ridge along 28N and a tropical wave moving through the central Caribbean Sea will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds south of 22N through tonight. A cold front will move into the northern waters east of 70W late today. The front will move acrossthe northern forecast waters on Mon then weaken into a trough by Tue. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are expected ahead of the frontand E of 70W today and tonight. |
Mesoscale Discussion 2004 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Areas affected... portions of central and southern West Virginia Concerning... Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586... Valid 162231Z - 170000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586 continues. SUMMARY... A few damaging gusts are possible over the next few hours. The best chance for severe storms will be with storms moving along the leading edge of outflow from earlier storms.
Mesoscale Discussion 2003 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Areas affected... portions of southern Indiana into southwestern Ohio and northern Kentucky Concerning... Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589... Valid 162200Z - 162300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589 continues. SUMMARY... Damaging gusts (a couple of which may be severe) remain possible with an ongoing thunderstorm cluster over the next few hours. Storms may progress beyond the bounds of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589, which may require a new watch issuance downstream.
Mesoscale Discussion 2002 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Areas affected... eastern Colorado Concerning... Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587... Valid 162150Z - 162345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587 continues. SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging wind threat continues within WW587.
