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MIKE DELEONARDIS WEATHER

 
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Nov 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES

A 1008 mb low pressure center is in the Atlantic Ocean near 27N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the center from 20N to 31N between 47W and 58W. This well-defined, non- tropical low pressure is not expected to develop through tonight due to unfavorable upper-level winds, but environmental conditions are likely to become somewhat more conducive for the low to aquire subtropical characteristics this weekend, while it moves NE, well E of Bermuda. By early next week, the system will interact with or become absorbed by a cold front and conditions will become unfavorable for further development. There is a medium chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 08N17W and 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W, to 04N30W, and to 03N49W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 90 nm either side of the the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO

Dry conditions and high pressure dominate the Gulf of Mexico early this morning as a previously stationary front along the northern Gulf coast has lifted north as a warm front. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat night, quickly reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near 25N90W and the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun evening and to southeast of the Gulf by Mon evening. The front will be followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas. These conditions will diminish Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Scattered moderate convection is occurring S of 13N W of 77W in the far SW Caribbean along the extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Otherwise, with high pressure north of the area and low pressure over South and Central America, fresh trade winds prevail. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin into early next week. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean Mon evening and extend from eastern Cuba to near the border of Honduras and Nicaragua late Tue. The front will be followed by fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas. Winds and seas are expected to diminish Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to precede the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please see Special Features section above for information on the low pressure SE of Bermuda. Over the eastern Atlantic, a 1029 mb high pressure centered near 33N35W is dominating weather, whereas in the western Atlantic, a ridge extending from the north Atlantic across Bermuda and into the Bahamas is dominating area weather. Scattered trade wind showers are occurring in and around the Bahamas. High pressure over the western Atlantic extending westward to Florida will weaken through Sat as a weakening cold front moves across the western part of the area. Southerly winds will increase over the NW waters beginning Sun afternoon as a strong cold front approaches. The front will move off NE Florida Mon, reach from near 31N77W to South Florida by early Mon evening and from near 31N70W to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba by late Tue. Fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas will follow in behind the front. Winds diminish late Tue, with the highest seas shifting to northeast of the Bahamas by late Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to precede the front.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
100 AM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda is producing disorganizedshowers and thunderstorms. Little development is expected for the next day or two due to unfavorable upper-level winds. By late Saturday or Sunday, however, environmental conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for the low to acquire subtropical characteristics while it moves northeastward ahead of a frontal system. By early next week, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development as the system interacts with or becomes absorbed by a frontal system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form over the far eastern Atlantic during the weekend. This system could gradually gain subtropical characteristics while it moves slowly southward to the west of Portugal through early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Weather Outlook
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
100 AM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda is producing disorganizedshowers and thunderstorms. Little development is expected for the next day or two due to unfavorable upper-level winds. By late Saturday or Sunday, however, environmental conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for the low to acquire subtropical characteristics while it moves northeastward ahead of a frontal system. By early next week, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development as the system interacts with or becomes absorbed by a frontal system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form over the far eastern Atlantic during the weekend. This system could gradually gain subtropical characteristics while it moves slowly southward to the west of Portugal through early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Nov 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES

A 1008 mb low pressure center is in the Atlantic Ocean near 27N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the center from 20N to 31N between 47W and 58W. This well-defined, non- tropical low pressure is not expected to develop through tonight due to unfavorable upper-level winds, but environmental conditions are likely to become somewhat more conducive for the low to aquire subtropical characteristics this weekend, while it moves NE, well E of Bermuda. By early next week, the system will interact with or become absorbed by a cold front and conditions will become unfavorable for further development. There is a medium chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 08N17W and 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W, to 04N30W, and to 03N49W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 90 nm either side of the the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO

Dry conditions and high pressure dominate the Gulf of Mexico early this morning as a previously stationary front along the northern Gulf coast has lifted north as a warm front. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat night, quickly reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near 25N90W and the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun evening and to southeast of the Gulf by Mon evening. The front will be followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas. These conditions will diminish Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Scattered moderate convection is occurring S of 13N W of 77W in the far SW Caribbean along the extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Otherwise, with high pressure north of the area and low pressure over South and Central America, fresh trade winds prevail. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin into early next week. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean Mon evening and extend from eastern Cuba to near the border of Honduras and Nicaragua late Tue. The front will be followed by fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas. Winds and seas are expected to diminish Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to precede the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please see Special Features section above for information on the low pressure SE of Bermuda. Over the eastern Atlantic, a 1029 mb high pressure centered near 33N35W is dominating weather, whereas in the western Atlantic, a ridge extending from the north Atlantic across Bermuda and into the Bahamas is dominating area weather. Scattered trade wind showers are occurring in and around the Bahamas. High pressure over the western Atlantic extending westward to Florida will weaken through Sat as a weakening cold front moves across the western part of the area. Southerly winds will increase over the NW waters beginning Sun afternoon as a strong cold front approaches. The front will move off NE Florida Mon, reach from near 31N77W to South Florida by early Mon evening and from near 31N70W to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba by late Tue. Fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas will follow in behind the front. Winds diminish late Tue, with the highest seas shifting to northeast of the Bahamas by late Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to precede the front.

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Data sources: mesonet.org, hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu, web.uwm.edu, tropic.ssec.wisc.edu, noaa.gov (National Hurricane Center, Ocean Prediction Center, Climate Prediction Center, Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center), weather.gov