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MIKE DELEONARDIS WEATHER

 
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Jan 20 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2220 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure is centered due north of the western Caribbean this afternoon and will continue to support strong to near gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean through the latter part of the week. Nocturnal pressure fluctuations will cause these winds to pulse to gale force within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia this evening through early Thu morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 06N11W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 04N34W to coastal Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered showers isolated thunderstorms are noted from 01N to 05N between 08W and 26W.

GULF OF MEXICO

A broad surface ridge is centered across the Gulf, anchored on a 1025 mb high near 27N86W. A stationary front is analyzed just inland and across coastal sections from southern Texas to SE Louisiana then become a cold front to the Georgia-Florida border and into the Atlantic. The surface ridge is supporting moderate to locally fresh E winds south of 25N, with 4 to 6 ft seas, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 25N with 2 to 4 ft seas, except 1 ft or less across the waters of the Florida Big Bend. Relatively warm, moist SE low level wind flow over the cooler shelf waters along the north Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts is supporting patchy fog and low clouds within 75 nm of the coastline from the Atchafalaya Basin to central Texas waters. Elsewhere, no significant weather is observed. The ridge will extend across the northern Gulf Through Fri. A trough will form off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, supporting brief pulses of fresh to strong winds. A cold front will move over the northern Gulf Sat and become stationary into Sat night. The western part of the front will begin to lift north as a warm front late Sat night through Sun, while the rest of the front dissipates as Atlantic high pressure builds westward across the area through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA

High pressure centered over the northeast Gulf of Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds across the Caribbean east of 70W, and fresh to strong ENE winds to the west of 70W, and to near 30 kt across the waters off of central Colombia. Seas are 7 to 12 ft over the southwest Caribbean in NE to E wind swell. Seas are 6-7 ft off Belize and Quintana Roo due to the long fetch of fresh NE winds in the lee of the Cuban coast. 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere. High pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong winds over the southwest and south-central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong northeast winds are also expected in the lee of eastern Cuba through tonight. Winds and seas will diminish Fri through Sat as the high pressure weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A stationary front reaches from 31N45W to 24N72W, then through the southern Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along and within 90 nm N of the front. Farther west, a surface ridge extending west to east along roughly 27N is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in open waters between the front and 26N, and gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 7 ft seas north of 25N, except 2 to 3 ft north of the northern Bahamas and off the northeast Florida coast. No significant shower activity is evident. The stationary front extending through the southern Bahamas will dissipate tonight through Fri. A new cold front will move southward into waters between northeastern Florida and Bermuda. The main portion of this front will lift to the northeast of the area Thu, leaving a trailing stationary segment to dissipate along 27N by Thu evening. This front will be followed by yet another cold front that will move southward across the waters between Bermuda and NE Florida late Fri, reach from near 31N60W to 27N70W and to West Palm Beach, Florida Sat night, then begin to weaken as it reaches the far southern waters late Sun. High pressure will build over the area in the wake of this front. Farther east, a 1023 mb high pressure centered near 27N30W is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds south of 23N where seas are 7 to 9 ft in a mix of N swell and shorter period wind waves. NW swell is reaching as far south as 24N east of 65W and producing seas of 6-9 ft. 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere north of 22N. A sharp upper trough reaches from the Canary Islands to near 09N41W. Upper divergence southeast of the upper trough is supporting moderate showers within 480 nm to the southeast of the upper trough.
Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Weather Outlook
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Jan 20 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2220 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure is centered due north of the western Caribbean this afternoon and will continue to support strong to near gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean through the latter part of the week. Nocturnal pressure fluctuations will cause these winds to pulse to gale force within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia this evening through early Thu morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 06N11W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 04N34W to coastal Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered showers isolated thunderstorms are noted from 01N to 05N between 08W and 26W.

GULF OF MEXICO

A broad surface ridge is centered across the Gulf, anchored on a 1025 mb high near 27N86W. A stationary front is analyzed just inland and across coastal sections from southern Texas to SE Louisiana then become a cold front to the Georgia-Florida border and into the Atlantic. The surface ridge is supporting moderate to locally fresh E winds south of 25N, with 4 to 6 ft seas, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 25N with 2 to 4 ft seas, except 1 ft or less across the waters of the Florida Big Bend. Relatively warm, moist SE low level wind flow over the cooler shelf waters along the north Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts is supporting patchy fog and low clouds within 75 nm of the coastline from the Atchafalaya Basin to central Texas waters. Elsewhere, no significant weather is observed. The ridge will extend across the northern Gulf Through Fri. A trough will form off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, supporting brief pulses of fresh to strong winds. A cold front will move over the northern Gulf Sat and become stationary into Sat night. The western part of the front will begin to lift north as a warm front late Sat night through Sun, while the rest of the front dissipates as Atlantic high pressure builds westward across the area through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA

High pressure centered over the northeast Gulf of Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds across the Caribbean east of 70W, and fresh to strong ENE winds to the west of 70W, and to near 30 kt across the waters off of central Colombia. Seas are 7 to 12 ft over the southwest Caribbean in NE to E wind swell. Seas are 6-7 ft off Belize and Quintana Roo due to the long fetch of fresh NE winds in the lee of the Cuban coast. 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere. High pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong winds over the southwest and south-central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong northeast winds are also expected in the lee of eastern Cuba through tonight. Winds and seas will diminish Fri through Sat as the high pressure weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A stationary front reaches from 31N45W to 24N72W, then through the southern Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along and within 90 nm N of the front. Farther west, a surface ridge extending west to east along roughly 27N is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in open waters between the front and 26N, and gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 7 ft seas north of 25N, except 2 to 3 ft north of the northern Bahamas and off the northeast Florida coast. No significant shower activity is evident. The stationary front extending through the southern Bahamas will dissipate tonight through Fri. A new cold front will move southward into waters between northeastern Florida and Bermuda. The main portion of this front will lift to the northeast of the area Thu, leaving a trailing stationary segment to dissipate along 27N by Thu evening. This front will be followed by yet another cold front that will move southward across the waters between Bermuda and NE Florida late Fri, reach from near 31N60W to 27N70W and to West Palm Beach, Florida Sat night, then begin to weaken as it reaches the far southern waters late Sun. High pressure will build over the area in the wake of this front. Farther east, a 1023 mb high pressure centered near 27N30W is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds south of 23N where seas are 7 to 9 ft in a mix of N swell and shorter period wind waves. NW swell is reaching as far south as 24N east of 65W and producing seas of 6-9 ft. 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere north of 22N. A sharp upper trough reaches from the Canary Islands to near 09N41W. Upper divergence southeast of the upper trough is supporting moderate showers within 480 nm to the southeast of the upper trough.

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NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Colorado Valley and southern Arizona tonight.
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Data sources: mesonet.org, hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu, web.uwm.edu, tropic.ssec.wisc.edu, noaa.gov (National Hurricane Center, Ocean Prediction Center, Climate Prediction Center, Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center), weather.gov