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MIKE DELEONARDIS WEATHER

 
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun May 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVES

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W-28W from 14N southward, and moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 00N to 07.5N between 23W and 30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W from 12N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is found near this feature at this time as the wave moves through a region of middle to upper level subsidence.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

A monsoon trough exits western Africa near 07.5N12W to 06N13W. An ITCZ extends from near 06N13W to 05N26W, then from 02.5S37W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07.5N between 12W and 21W, and from 00N to 03.5N between 30W and 47W. The East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across Panama, much of NW Colombia, and adjacent Caribbean waters.



GULF OF MEXICO


A stationary front curves westward from the Florida Big Bend area to 28N90W to near Galveston, Texas at 29.5N94.5W. Scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms are found up to 45 nm from either side of this boundary. A surface trough runs northeastward from the E central Gulf across central Florida to beyond 31N78W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over central and southeast Florida. Otherwise, a 1015 mb high over the central Gulf is dominating the E Gulf with gentle to moderate SSW to W winds and 2 to 3 ft seas. Moderate southeasterly return flow and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail across the W Gulf. For the forecast, the frontal boundary over the northern waters will dissipate Sun. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the basin, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevailing over the W Gulf and light to gentle winds across the E Gulf through the weekend. Fresh southerly return flow will develop Sun night across the NW waters and continue through early next week.



CARIBBEAN SEA


Convergent trade winds are producing scattered passing showers over the E basin, including the Lesser Antilles. Convergent southeasterly winds behind a tropical wave are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras and Nicaragua and extending eastward to 81W. Fresh to locally strong ENE trades and seas of 7 to 9 ft are seen over the south central basin, just north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh ENE to E trades with 6 to 8 ft seas exist over the central and north central basin. Gentle to moderate easterly trades and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea. In the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will support moderate to fresh trades across most of the Caribbean through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will prevail off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela through early next week with seas to 8 ft.



ATLANTIC OCEAN


A surface trough runs northeastward from near Cape Canaveral, Florida to beyond 31N78W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present across the Bahamas and offshore of south central and southeast Florida. To the east, a cold front reaches southwestward from south of the Azores across 31N29W to 26N34W, together with two surface troughs to the west near 26N38W and 28N57W; scattered showers are evident north of 23N between 27W and 59W. Farther east, a low to mid- level trough near 29N17W is triggering scattered showers near the Canary Islands. The Atlantic ridge is dominating the central basin with gentle to moderate NE to ESE trades S of 21N and seas of 3 to 6 ft, north of the Equator between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. The exception is 5 to 7 ft seas in northerly swell north of 26N between 31W and 50W, and moderate to locally fresh southerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas east of the trough offshore of the northern Florida and Georgia coasts. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic will shift eastward as a frontal boundary approaches the eastern U.S. coastline. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will persist off the NE Florida coast today. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the remainder of the region through early next week. Winds will pulse moderate to fresh north of Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas through early next week.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
800 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwest Gulf of Mexico:A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the system drifts generally eastward near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Weather Outlook
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
800 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwest Gulf of Mexico:A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the system drifts generally eastward near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun May 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVES

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W-28W from 14N southward, and moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 00N to 07.5N between 23W and 30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W from 12N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is found near this feature at this time as the wave moves through a region of middle to upper level subsidence.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

A monsoon trough exits western Africa near 07.5N12W to 06N13W. An ITCZ extends from near 06N13W to 05N26W, then from 02.5S37W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07.5N between 12W and 21W, and from 00N to 03.5N between 30W and 47W. The East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across Panama, much of NW Colombia, and adjacent Caribbean waters.



GULF OF MEXICO


A stationary front curves westward from the Florida Big Bend area to 28N90W to near Galveston, Texas at 29.5N94.5W. Scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms are found up to 45 nm from either side of this boundary. A surface trough runs northeastward from the E central Gulf across central Florida to beyond 31N78W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over central and southeast Florida. Otherwise, a 1015 mb high over the central Gulf is dominating the E Gulf with gentle to moderate SSW to W winds and 2 to 3 ft seas. Moderate southeasterly return flow and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail across the W Gulf. For the forecast, the frontal boundary over the northern waters will dissipate Sun. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the basin, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevailing over the W Gulf and light to gentle winds across the E Gulf through the weekend. Fresh southerly return flow will develop Sun night across the NW waters and continue through early next week.



CARIBBEAN SEA


Convergent trade winds are producing scattered passing showers over the E basin, including the Lesser Antilles. Convergent southeasterly winds behind a tropical wave are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras and Nicaragua and extending eastward to 81W. Fresh to locally strong ENE trades and seas of 7 to 9 ft are seen over the south central basin, just north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh ENE to E trades with 6 to 8 ft seas exist over the central and north central basin. Gentle to moderate easterly trades and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea. In the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will support moderate to fresh trades across most of the Caribbean through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will prevail off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela through early next week with seas to 8 ft.



ATLANTIC OCEAN


A surface trough runs northeastward from near Cape Canaveral, Florida to beyond 31N78W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present across the Bahamas and offshore of south central and southeast Florida. To the east, a cold front reaches southwestward from south of the Azores across 31N29W to 26N34W, together with two surface troughs to the west near 26N38W and 28N57W; scattered showers are evident north of 23N between 27W and 59W. Farther east, a low to mid- level trough near 29N17W is triggering scattered showers near the Canary Islands. The Atlantic ridge is dominating the central basin with gentle to moderate NE to ESE trades S of 21N and seas of 3 to 6 ft, north of the Equator between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. The exception is 5 to 7 ft seas in northerly swell north of 26N between 31W and 50W, and moderate to locally fresh southerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas east of the trough offshore of the northern Florida and Georgia coasts. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic will shift eastward as a frontal boundary approaches the eastern U.S. coastline. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will persist off the NE Florida coast today. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the remainder of the region through early next week. Winds will pulse moderate to fresh north of Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas through early next week.

Tropical Formation Graphics
48 Hour Storm Probability
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Atlantic Ocean Temperatures
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Current Tornado & Severe Thunderstorm Watches
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283
WW 0283 Image
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
555 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and Central Nebraska

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 555
PM until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282
WW 0282 Image
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 282
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Oklahoma
Northwest Texas and the southeast Texas Panhandle

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 281
WW 0281 Image
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
225 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeastern Montana
Western South Dakota
Northeastern Wyoming

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until 900 PM MDT.

* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible.
Mesoscale Discussions
SPC MD 953
MD 0953 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0953
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0930 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

Areas affected... Northwest TX

Concerning... Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282... 

Valid 290230Z - 290330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282
continues.

SUMMARY... Severe threat is waning across the southern High Plains.

 
US Severe Weather Outlooks
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
Thunderstorms associated with wind damage, and possibly a few gusts over 70 mph, will be possible this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. A few marginally severe wind gusts may also occur across parts of northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma.
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Data sources: mesonet.org, hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu, web.uwm.edu, tropic.ssec.wisc.edu, noaa.gov (National Hurricane Center, Ocean Prediction Center, Climate Prediction Center, Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center), weather.gov