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MIKE DELEONARDIS WEATHER

 
 
Tropical Depression Twelve
AS OF 5:00 AM AST WED OCT 5
(WINDS: 35 MPH | MOVING NW AT 8 MPH | PRESSURE: 1007 MB)
DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
Dirty Longwave
Infrared
Tropical Depression Twelve Dirty Longwave<br/>Infrared
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Tropical Depression Twelve Daytime<br/>Infrared Night
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Tropical Depression Twelve 5 Day<br/>Forecast
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Tropical Depression Twelve Surface<br/>Wind Field
Earliest Wind
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Tropical Depression Twelve Earliest Wind<br/>Arrivals
Forecast
Wind Intensity
Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast<br/>Wind Intensity
Computer
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Tropical Depression Twelve Computer<br/>Models
Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities
Tropical Depression Twelve Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities
Hurricane
Wind Probabilities
Tropical Depression Twelve Hurricane<br/>Wind Probabilities
 
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Oct 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES

Tropical Depression Twelve

As of 05/0300 UTC, Newly formed Tropical Depression (TD) Twelve is centered at 15.3N 30.4W or 375 nm west of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is moving NNW at 8 kt with an estimated minimum central pressure of 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Combined seas are peaking at 6 to 8 ft near and north of the center. Numerous moderate convection is seen near and northeast of the center. TD Twelve is forecast to maintain its currently intensity and NNW to NW motion through Thursday. Afterward, it is expected to gradually dissipate. Please refer to the latest NHC Public Advisory at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/050236.shtml? and NHC Forecast Advisory at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT2+shtml/050235.shtml? for more details. Tropical Wave/Broad Low Pressure

A tropical wave extends southward from east of the Windward Islands at 17N58W through a 1007 mb low near 11N58W to near the Guyana-Suriname border. This system is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Fresh to strong E to SE winds with 7 to 10 ft seas are evident up to 270 nm north and east of the low center, including waters near Barbados. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is flaring up from Venezuela-Guyana coast to 13N between 57W and 60W. For the chances of further development on this system, it is medium for the next 48 hours and high for the next 5 days. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, as well as gusty winds, are expected over portions of the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the ABC Islands during the next couple of days. Interests in those locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the African coast near the Senegal-Gambia border through the aforementioned Tropical Depression (TD) Twelve to near 09N42W. Besides convection associated with TD Twelve, scattered moderate convection is present near the trough from 07N to 10N between 35W and 41W; and also south of the trough from 08N to 14N between 27W and 31W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found from the coast of Guinea Bissau southward to Sierra Leone. An ITCZ continues from 09N42W through 09N50W to 12N56W. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring up to 80 nm along either side of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms near Panama and northwest Colombia, and adjacent Caribbean waters.



GULF OF MEXICO


A surface trough southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana is causing scattered showers at the north-central and east-central Gulf. A dry reinforcing cold front extends westward from near Naples, Florida to the eastern Gulf near 26N88W. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft are present across the eastern Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Mainly gentle NE winds with 1 to 2 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will slowly move southward across the southeastern Gulf for the next few days. It is expected to stall and gradually dissipate over the Straits of Florida Fri through Sat. High pressure north of the area will maintain gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight to moderate seas through Thu. Another cold front is expected to move into the northern Gulf Fri, reach the central Gulf Sat and then stall over the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida Sun through Sun night. Expect fresh NE to E winds across the southeastern Gulf Fri through Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure and lower pressure in the western Caribbean.



CARIBBEAN SEA


Please read the Special Features section for more details on the tropical wave/broad low pressure, located east of the southern Windward Islands. A surface trough curves northwestward from a 1010 mb low off the northern Nicaragua coast to near the Belize-Mexico border. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the west central basin, including the Cayman Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist over the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident at the central basin. Light to gentle with locally moderate northerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for western basin. For the forecast, the broad low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section will move across the Caribbean through Sat night, possibly as a tropical cyclone. It will bring strong winds and rough seas to the Leeward and Windward Islands tonight, the eastern and central Caribbean through Fri, and the southwestern Caribbean through Sat night before moving into Central America. Interests across the region should monitor the progress of this system. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE winds with slight to moderate seas are expected through late Fri, except for winds increasing to moderate to fresh over most of the western Caribbean Fri through Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens between the low pressure and strong high pressure north of the Caribbean.



ATLANTIC OCEAN


Please read the Special Features section on newly formed Tropical Depression Twelve in the eastern Atlantic Basin, and the low pressure east of the Windward Islands. A mostly dry reinforcing cold front curves southwestward from west of Bermuda across 31N70W and the northwest Bahamas to southern Florida near Fort Lauderdale. Convergent southerly winds to the east are producing scattered moderate convection from 22N to 28N between 59W and 70W. A pronounced upper-level low near 28N33W is generating scattered moderate convection near its center from 23N to 29N between 32W and 35W, and farther east from the northern Cabo Verde Islands northeastward to the Canary Islands. The Atlantic ridge near and north of 31N is channeling gentle to locally moderate NE to E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft north of 21N between the northwest African coast and 65W. Farther west, moderate N to NE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas in northerly swell are seen behind the cold front; while gentle SW to S winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are east of the front to 65W. To the south outside the influence of the broad low pressure, gentle to locally moderate NE to ENE trades with 3 to 5 ft seas are evident from 10N to 21N between 34W and the Lesser Antilles. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin not including waters near Tropical Depression Twelve, light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in southerly swell are present. For the forecast west of 55W, the dry cold front will stall from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida Thu night, before dissipating by late Sat. Another cold front will sweep southeastward, reaching from near Bermuda across the central Bahamas to southern Florida/Florida Straits Sun and then stall. Expect NE winds to increase to fresh over the southwest part of the area and Straits of Florida starting late Thu as the gradient tightens between the fronts and strong high pressure to the north. Seas up to 9 ft in northeast swell to the north of the Bahamas and east of northeast Florida will subside through Wed.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve, located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

East of the Windward Islands:A broad area of low pressure located just east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Satellite-derived wind data and radar images from Barbados indicate that this system does not yet have a well-defined circulation center. However, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next several days if the system remains over open waters while moving generally westward at about 15 mph through the Windward Islands and into the Caribbean Sea. An Air Force reconnaissance mission is scheduled to investigate the system this morning, if necessary.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the ABC Islands during the next couple of days. Interests in those locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&Key messages for the disturbance east of the Windward Islands can be found on the National Hurricane Center website at www.hurricanes.gov

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Weather Outlook
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve, located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

East of the Windward Islands:A broad area of low pressure located just east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Satellite-derived wind data and radar images from Barbados indicate that this system does not yet have a well-defined circulation center. However, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next several days if the system remains over open waters while moving generally westward at about 15 mph through the Windward Islands and into the Caribbean Sea. An Air Force reconnaissance mission is scheduled to investigate the system this morning, if necessary.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the ABC Islands during the next couple of days. Interests in those locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&Key messages for the disturbance east of the Windward Islands can be found on the National Hurricane Center website at www.hurricanes.gov

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Oct 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES

Tropical Depression Twelve

As of 05/0300 UTC, Newly formed Tropical Depression (TD) Twelve is centered at 15.3N 30.4W or 375 nm west of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is moving NNW at 8 kt with an estimated minimum central pressure of 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Combined seas are peaking at 6 to 8 ft near and north of the center. Numerous moderate convection is seen near and northeast of the center. TD Twelve is forecast to maintain its currently intensity and NNW to NW motion through Thursday. Afterward, it is expected to gradually dissipate. Please refer to the latest NHC Public Advisory at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/050236.shtml? and NHC Forecast Advisory at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT2+shtml/050235.shtml? for more details. Tropical Wave/Broad Low Pressure

A tropical wave extends southward from east of the Windward Islands at 17N58W through a 1007 mb low near 11N58W to near the Guyana-Suriname border. This system is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Fresh to strong E to SE winds with 7 to 10 ft seas are evident up to 270 nm north and east of the low center, including waters near Barbados. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is flaring up from Venezuela-Guyana coast to 13N between 57W and 60W. For the chances of further development on this system, it is medium for the next 48 hours and high for the next 5 days. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, as well as gusty winds, are expected over portions of the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the ABC Islands during the next couple of days. Interests in those locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the African coast near the Senegal-Gambia border through the aforementioned Tropical Depression (TD) Twelve to near 09N42W. Besides convection associated with TD Twelve, scattered moderate convection is present near the trough from 07N to 10N between 35W and 41W; and also south of the trough from 08N to 14N between 27W and 31W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found from the coast of Guinea Bissau southward to Sierra Leone. An ITCZ continues from 09N42W through 09N50W to 12N56W. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring up to 80 nm along either side of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms near Panama and northwest Colombia, and adjacent Caribbean waters.



GULF OF MEXICO


A surface trough southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana is causing scattered showers at the north-central and east-central Gulf. A dry reinforcing cold front extends westward from near Naples, Florida to the eastern Gulf near 26N88W. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft are present across the eastern Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Mainly gentle NE winds with 1 to 2 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will slowly move southward across the southeastern Gulf for the next few days. It is expected to stall and gradually dissipate over the Straits of Florida Fri through Sat. High pressure north of the area will maintain gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight to moderate seas through Thu. Another cold front is expected to move into the northern Gulf Fri, reach the central Gulf Sat and then stall over the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida Sun through Sun night. Expect fresh NE to E winds across the southeastern Gulf Fri through Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure and lower pressure in the western Caribbean.



CARIBBEAN SEA


Please read the Special Features section for more details on the tropical wave/broad low pressure, located east of the southern Windward Islands. A surface trough curves northwestward from a 1010 mb low off the northern Nicaragua coast to near the Belize-Mexico border. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the west central basin, including the Cayman Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist over the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident at the central basin. Light to gentle with locally moderate northerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for western basin. For the forecast, the broad low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section will move across the Caribbean through Sat night, possibly as a tropical cyclone. It will bring strong winds and rough seas to the Leeward and Windward Islands tonight, the eastern and central Caribbean through Fri, and the southwestern Caribbean through Sat night before moving into Central America. Interests across the region should monitor the progress of this system. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE winds with slight to moderate seas are expected through late Fri, except for winds increasing to moderate to fresh over most of the western Caribbean Fri through Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens between the low pressure and strong high pressure north of the Caribbean.



ATLANTIC OCEAN


Please read the Special Features section on newly formed Tropical Depression Twelve in the eastern Atlantic Basin, and the low pressure east of the Windward Islands. A mostly dry reinforcing cold front curves southwestward from west of Bermuda across 31N70W and the northwest Bahamas to southern Florida near Fort Lauderdale. Convergent southerly winds to the east are producing scattered moderate convection from 22N to 28N between 59W and 70W. A pronounced upper-level low near 28N33W is generating scattered moderate convection near its center from 23N to 29N between 32W and 35W, and farther east from the northern Cabo Verde Islands northeastward to the Canary Islands. The Atlantic ridge near and north of 31N is channeling gentle to locally moderate NE to E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft north of 21N between the northwest African coast and 65W. Farther west, moderate N to NE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas in northerly swell are seen behind the cold front; while gentle SW to S winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are east of the front to 65W. To the south outside the influence of the broad low pressure, gentle to locally moderate NE to ENE trades with 3 to 5 ft seas are evident from 10N to 21N between 34W and the Lesser Antilles. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin not including waters near Tropical Depression Twelve, light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in southerly swell are present. For the forecast west of 55W, the dry cold front will stall from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida Thu night, before dissipating by late Sat. Another cold front will sweep southeastward, reaching from near Bermuda across the central Bahamas to southern Florida/Florida Straits Sun and then stall. Expect NE winds to increase to fresh over the southwest part of the area and Straits of Florida starting late Thu as the gradient tightens between the fronts and strong high pressure to the north. Seas up to 9 ft in northeast swell to the north of the Bahamas and east of northeast Florida will subside through Wed.

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US Severe Weather Outlooks
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the southwestern U.S. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may also occur in parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, and in the vicinity of southern New England. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely.
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Data sources: mesonet.org, hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu, web.uwm.edu, tropic.ssec.wisc.edu, noaa.gov (National Hurricane Center, Ocean Prediction Center, Climate Prediction Center, Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center), weather.gov