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MIKE DELEONARDIS WEATHER

 
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Nov 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N- 14N between 30W- 42W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 45W- 61W.

GULF OF MEXICO

A stationary front extends across the far NW Gulf waters. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A ridge extends from the Atlantic across the Gulf of Mexico from N Florida to the SW Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail over the NE Gulf with gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf waters on Sun morning. The front will reach from the Florida western panhandle to near 25N90W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun evening and to southeast of the Gulf by Mon evening. The front will be followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas. These conditions will diminish Tue and Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. A ridge of high pressure prevails N of the area over the SW N Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the equatorial trough is supporting fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Moderate winds prevail over the eastern Caribbean while moderate to fresh winds prevail over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the central Caribbean, 3-5 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the western Caribbean. High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean through Fri morning. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across most of the basin through Sun. A strong cold front will reach the northwestern Caribbean Mon night and extend from eastern Cuba to near the border of Honduras and Nicaragua late on Tue. The front will be followed by fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas. Winds are expected to diminish to mainly fresh speeds Tue and seas are expected to subside to by late Tue night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to precede the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A stationary front extends from 31N56W to a 1010 mb low near 28N58W, then from the low to near 20N56W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 420 nm NE semicircle of the low. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 9-12 ft prevail within 180 nm NW and 390 nm NE quadrants of the low. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere N of 20N and W of 50W, with seas in the 6-9 ft range. Fresh to strong winds, and seas 8-10 ft prevail N of 20N and E of 50W. Moderate to fresh trades, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail over the tradewind zone S of 20N. High pressure over the western Atlantic extending westward to Florida will weaken through Sat as a weakening cold front moves across the western part of the area. Southerly winds will begin to increase over the northwest waters beginning Sun afternoon as a strong cold front moves from the Gulf of mexico to across northern Florida. The front will move off the northeast Florida coast Mon, reach from near 31N77W to South Florida by early Mon evening and from near 31N70W to the southeastern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba by late Tue. Fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas will follow in behind the front. Winds diminish Tue, with the highest of the seas shifting to northeast of the Bahamas by late Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to precede the front. Northerly swell will continue to propagate through the Atlantic waters and passages through Fri.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
700 PM EST Thu Nov 26 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical area of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda have increased during the past few hours. Additional subtropical development is possible during the next day or so while the low drifts south-southwestward. Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development over the weekend as the system begins to move north-northeastward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Another non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form over the far eastern Atlantic during the weekend. This system could gradually gain subtropical characteristics while it moves slowly southward through early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Weather Outlook
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
700 PM EST Thu Nov 26 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical area of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda have increased during the past few hours. Additional subtropical development is possible during the next day or so while the low drifts south-southwestward. Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development over the weekend as the system begins to move north-northeastward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Another non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form over the far eastern Atlantic during the weekend. This system could gradually gain subtropical characteristics while it moves slowly southward through early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Nov 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N- 14N between 30W- 42W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 45W- 61W.

GULF OF MEXICO

A stationary front extends across the far NW Gulf waters. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A ridge extends from the Atlantic across the Gulf of Mexico from N Florida to the SW Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail over the NE Gulf with gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf waters on Sun morning. The front will reach from the Florida western panhandle to near 25N90W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun evening and to southeast of the Gulf by Mon evening. The front will be followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas. These conditions will diminish Tue and Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. A ridge of high pressure prevails N of the area over the SW N Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the equatorial trough is supporting fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Moderate winds prevail over the eastern Caribbean while moderate to fresh winds prevail over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the central Caribbean, 3-5 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the western Caribbean. High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean through Fri morning. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across most of the basin through Sun. A strong cold front will reach the northwestern Caribbean Mon night and extend from eastern Cuba to near the border of Honduras and Nicaragua late on Tue. The front will be followed by fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas. Winds are expected to diminish to mainly fresh speeds Tue and seas are expected to subside to by late Tue night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to precede the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A stationary front extends from 31N56W to a 1010 mb low near 28N58W, then from the low to near 20N56W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 420 nm NE semicircle of the low. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 9-12 ft prevail within 180 nm NW and 390 nm NE quadrants of the low. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere N of 20N and W of 50W, with seas in the 6-9 ft range. Fresh to strong winds, and seas 8-10 ft prevail N of 20N and E of 50W. Moderate to fresh trades, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail over the tradewind zone S of 20N. High pressure over the western Atlantic extending westward to Florida will weaken through Sat as a weakening cold front moves across the western part of the area. Southerly winds will begin to increase over the northwest waters beginning Sun afternoon as a strong cold front moves from the Gulf of mexico to across northern Florida. The front will move off the northeast Florida coast Mon, reach from near 31N77W to South Florida by early Mon evening and from near 31N70W to the southeastern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba by late Tue. Fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas will follow in behind the front. Winds diminish Tue, with the highest of the seas shifting to northeast of the Bahamas by late Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to precede the front. Northerly swell will continue to propagate through the Atlantic waters and passages through Fri.

Tropical Formation Graphics
48 Hour Storm Probability
48 Hour Storm Probability
Atlantic Ocean Temperatures
Atlantic Ocean Temperatures
Gulf of Mexico Temperatures
Gulf of Mexico Temperatures
North Atlantic
North Atlantic
Ocean Heat Content
Ocean Heat Content
SST Anomalies
SST Anomalies

 
US Severe Weather Outlooks
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
Isolated marginal hail will be possible overnight, from parts of east Texas across southern Louisiana and vicinity.
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Data sources: mesonet.org, hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu, web.uwm.edu, tropic.ssec.wisc.edu, noaa.gov (National Hurricane Center, Ocean Prediction Center, Climate Prediction Center, Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center), weather.gov