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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Two, located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jun 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0910 UTC.
SPECIAL FEATURES Tropical Depression Two is centered near 27.0N 86.5W at 02/0900 UTC or 250 nm W of Ft. Myers Florida moving S at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently to 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm in the NE quadrant of the depression. A southward to south- southeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. The latest forecast now maintains the system as a tropical depression today before a weakening trend starts this evening, with the system degenerating into a remnant low on Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. TROPICAL WAVES The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 13N to 02N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 04N to 09N between 27W and 32W. The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 16N to 04N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 50W and 53W. The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W from 07N to 18N, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is occurring. MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to 06.5N29W. It resumes from 06N32W to 04N48W. Numerous moderate with scattered strong convection is observed near the west coast of Africa from 03N to 10N between 10W and 19W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 32W and 42W. GULF OF MEXICO Please read the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Two. Aside from Tropical Depression Two, moderate to locally fresh winds are noted west of the Yucatan peninsula, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere W of 90W. Light to gentle winds prevail over the SE Gulf. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range west of 90W, and 1-2 ft E of 90W. Some smoke and haze with reductions to visibility are possible in the southern Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche due to ongoing agricultural fires over southern Mexico and northern Central America. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Two near 27.0N 86.5W 1007 mb at 5 AM EDT moving S at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. The system will move to 26.2N 86.4W this afternoon, 24.7N 86.2W Sat morning, become a remnant low and move to 23.3N 85.5W Sat afternoon, 22.5N 84.5W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun afternoon. Over the western Gulf, gentle to moderate winds are expected into early next week, with occasional fresh pulses along the W coast of Yucatan. CARIBBEAN SEA Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted east of 73W, with light to gentle winds prevailing over the remainder of the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range east of 73W, and 2-3 ft west of 73W. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses along the N coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Winds over the central part of the basin will diminish early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN A surface trough extends from the northern Bahamas northeastward to 1007 mb low pressure near 31N70W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, are noted within 90 nm east and southeast of the low. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft are elsewhere W of 60W. A second low is centered near 29N51W. High pressure is centered near 22N36W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-6 ft, are noted north of 20N and east of 60W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are found south of 20N. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong winds are likely near and to the SE of the low near 31N70W as it shifts ENE through early next week. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and building seas are expected over the waters E of northern Florida late this weekend through early Mon. |
Mesoscale Discussion 0917 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023 Areas affected... Parts of the TX Panhandle and South Plains into extreme east-central NM Concerning... Severe potential... Watch likely Valid 021534Z - 021700Z Probability of Watch Issuance... 95 percent SUMMARY... Severe storm development is possible late this morning, and will become increasingly likely this afternoon. An initial threat of large hail is expected, with an increasing threat of severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes expected to evolve over time. Watch issuance is likely.
