MIKE DELEONARDIS WEATHER

Tropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL0015 UTC Sat Aug 29 2026Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through2245 UTC

.SPECIAL FEATURES

Atlantic Gale Warning: The remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly will approach waters east of the Leeward Islands Sat as a strong tropical wave, bringing gale conditions and very rough seas. Strong winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms will spread into the far NE Caribbean, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico late this weekend into early next week in association with this tropical wave.Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the NationalHurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

TROPICAL WAVES

A tropical wave is along 28W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Only a few showers are near the wave axis. A tropical wave is along 48W, south of 20N, moving westward around15 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure, remnants of T.S. Dolly, is along the wave axis near 15N48W. A cluster of moderate to isolatedstrong convection is within about 150 nm NW quadrant of low center.Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are noted on either side ofthe wave axis per scatterometer and altimeter data covering the waters from 13N to 20N between 40W and 50W.A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis near 78W, moving westward at around 20 kt. The wave appears to enhance convectionover parts of eastern Cuba and Jamaica.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 18N16Wto 10N23W to 06N34W. The ITCZ extends from 06N34W to 09N45W.Convection is limited.

GULF OF AMERICA

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are affecting thenorther Gulf waters, mainly N of 26N. This convective activity is ahead of a surface trough, that extends from a 1014 mb low pressure located near 29N87W to 27N90W to 28N94W. A weak ridgedominates the remainder of the basin. Under this pattern, gentleto locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms.For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf waters through early next week, supporting moderate or lighter winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. A nearly- stationary front will meander near the northern Gulf waters during the next few days producing a few thunderstorms. Mariners can expect gusty winds and higher seas associated with the stronger thunderstorms.



CARIBBEAN SEA

The subtropical ridge centered SW of the Azores supports fresh tostrong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean, Gulf of Honduras and WindwardPassage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the SW Caribbean.For the forecast, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly will approach waters east of the Leeward Islands Sat as a strong tropical wave, bringing gale conditions and very rough seas. Strong winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms will spread into the far NE Caribbean, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico late this weekend into early next week in association with this tropical wave. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressure over South America will support strong trades and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean this weekend. These winds will diminish some early nextweek as the aforementioned tropical wave disrupts the pressure gradient, but will increase again by the middle of next week.



ATLANTIC OCEAN

A Gale Warning is in affect in association the remnants of Dolly.Please, refer to the Special Features section for more details. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, dot the waters between Bermuda and the Bahamas, particularly N of 22N and W of 65W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, anchored on a 1029 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near 36N32W. The ridge supports moderateto locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across much ofthe SW North Atlantic. Aside from the winds and seas associated with the remnants of Dolly, fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are evident N of 20N and E of 18N to the coast of W Africa, including the Canary Islands. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere under theinfluence of the ridge. For the forecast west of 55W, the strong tropical wave associatedwith the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly will bring strong winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms across the waters S of 22N as it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late this weekend and spreads toward Hispaniola early next week. Elsewhere,the subtropical ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to locally strong off northern Hispaniola each night.
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:East of the Leeward Islands (Remnants of Dolly):A tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, are located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. Redevelopment of this system is unlikely while it moves westward to west-northwestward near 25 mph. The wave could bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.Northeastern and North-Central Gulf of America:Disorganized cloudiness and showers over portions of the northeastern and north-central Gulf of America are associated with a weak area of low pressure. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow while it remains nearly stationary for the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.