MIKE DELEONARDIS WEATHER

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Sep 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES

Newly downgraded Tropical Depression Gordon is centered near 19.2N 46.1W at 15/2100 UTC or 970 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The 12 ft seas extend 60 nm in the northern semicircle with peak seas near 15 ft. Scattered showers are near the center of Gordon. Gordon will move W to WSW over the next few days, with Gordon forecast to slow down considerably through the middle of the week. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tropical Storm Gordon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

TROPICAL WAVES

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 24W from 06N to 19N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Convection near this wave is associated with the monsoon trough. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W from 20N southward to western Venezuela, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed across Hispaniola. A west-central Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W extending from 20N to inland Panama. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along and near the far southern portions of this wave, likely aided by the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaching across the southwest Caribbean.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 15N17W and continues southwestward to near 10N39W, and then resumes near 13N53W to 11N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 15N from 53W eastward. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from 11N74W to the coast of Costa Rica near 11N84W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 12N between 73W and 83W.



GULF OF MEXICO

A stationary front is draped across the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring off the coast of the northern Gulf from 91W through coastal Florida. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail across the basin. For the forecast, light to gentle breezes will occur through much of the upcoming week. Locally moderate to fresh winds may pulse in the Bay of Campeche nightly through the middle of the week.



CARIBBEAN SEA

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the waves moving across the basin. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in central portions of the basin from 17N to the coasts of Jamaica and Cuba between 75W and 85W. Otherwise, a relatively fair and modest trade- wind pattern continues across much of the basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted via earlier scatterometer data in the central Caribbean, along with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate E trade winds along with slight seas are over the eastern portions of the basin. Gentle NE to SE winds and relatively low seas of 1 to 3 ft remain elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds will prevail in the central Caribbean through the middle of this week, pulsing to strong speeds in the south-central waters tonight through Tue. Moderate to locally fresh E winds will pulse off the coast of Honduras Mon into the middle of the week. Gentle to moderate trades are expected elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will continue across the waters the next several days.



ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Gordon in the central Atlantic, and the Tropical Waves section for details on the wave in the basin. A stationary front extends southwestward to the central coast of Florida. Farther east, a stationary front extends eastward from 31N72W to 31N56W. An area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is occurring across areas north of 21N between 50W and the east coast of Florida, including the central and northern Bahamas. This convection is located south of the stationary front. Near and immediately south of the front, moderate to fresh W to SW winds are occurring along with seas of 6 to 11 ft. Near and immediately north of the front, fresh to near gale force NE winds and seas 12 ft and higher are occurring. Winds and seas were confirmed via recent scatterometer and altimeter data. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin away from Tropical Depression Gordon and the aforementioned areas of convection associated with the stationary front. Gentle to moderate E to NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are occurring across much of the basin east of 50W. To the west of 50W, light to gentle SW winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are analyzed. From the Equator to 10N and east of 45W, moderate to fresh S to SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are occurring. For the forecast west of 55W, expect increasing winds and building seas across the waters north of 29N over the next couple of days. Moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas will develop by midweek north of 25N and east of 60W. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, located a couple hundred miles of the southeastern U.S. coastline.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.